Seat Projections

Alberta Votes Day 28: What to expect tomorrow

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2012 Alberta Election, Alberta Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

I’ve already written about the difficulties of using seat projection models due to the unique circumstances of this Alberta election. So rather than crunch the numbers, I thought it might prove more useful to conduct a “wisdom of the masses” exercise, by looking at the predictions being made in  the Great Alberta Election pool. Here’s what the nearly 100 politicos who have entered so far are expecting tomorrow:

Seat Totals

The above graph shows the median prediction for each party, with the bars representing the first-to-third quartile range – that is, where the “middle half” of all entries fall. Looking strictly at the means, we get a “best guess” of 42 Wildrose seats, 37 PC seats, 4 NDP seats, 3 Liberal seats, and 1 for the Alberta Party. That’s a slightly narrower gap than my prediction of WR 44, PC 35, NDP 4, Lib 4, AP 0 – and it suggests there’s some skepticism out there about Smith’s ability to seal the deal. After all, three-in-ten respondents still predict a PC victory and only a minority (41%) expect Smith to win a majority.

Races to Watch

Nine-in-ten expect Redford to hold her seat, but respondents are less certain about Raj Sherman (43%) and Ted Morton’s (19%) chances. It’s a little counter intuitive for Morton to get drowned in the Wildrose wave given he’d be right at home in the party, but I have a hard time seeing any PCs left standing in southern rural Alberta.

As for the Wildrose Party’s more colourful candidates, only 36% expect Allan Hunsperger (of “gays burn in hell” fame) or Ron Leech (of “being white is an advantage” fame) to be elected Monday. I’d be shocked if Hunsperger won, but Leech took 26% of the vote running as an independent last election – add in the Wildrose boost, and he seems like the odds on favourite to find his way to Edmonton, perhaps as Danielle Smith’s Multiculturalism Minister*.

Edmonton Glenora figures to be one of the most hotly contested seats – the PCs beat the Liberals by 100 votes last time, but both the NDP and Alberta Party are running strong candidates and have targeted the riding. And with the Wildrose’s Edmonton poll numbers, even they could pull it out on the vote split. This unpredictability is born out in the pool, where 56% expect the PCs to hold the riding, 21% (myself included) see it as an NDP pick-up, 11% pick the Alberta Party, 10% pick the Liberals, and 2% pick the Wildrose.

The Alberta Party

This being their first election, it’s difficult to know what to expect from the Alberta Party. Only one-in-three predict they’ll win a seat, and the mean guess on their best riding vote is 15-20%. That’s the most I’d expect them to get anywhere, but many pool entries had them winning multiple seats, and up to 40 or 50 percent of the vote in some ridings. 

The Senate

The Wildrose Party is predicted to pick up 1.7 of the 3 Senate seats. Personally, I expect a clean sweep – given the low level attention paid to the Senate election, I expect most will vote party lines.

The Morning After

Close to half (44%) expect Liberal leader Raj Sherman to announce his resignation within 48 hours of the vote – perhaps not surprising since most expect Sherman to lose his seat and just 18% think the Liberals will win more votes than the NDP.

One-in-three expect Redford to resign after the election – presumably not the same people voting for her as “the most progressive option”. Personally, I’d be surprised if any of the four opposition leaders are around come next election – hell, I’d be surprised if all four opposition parties still exist come the next election. But my best guess is that they’ll all take a bit of time before coming to a decision…or being forced into one.

*That’s obviously a joke. We all know Danielle Smith won’t name a Multiculturalism Minister.

Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2012 Alberta Election, Alberta Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings?

Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there’s no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it’s impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will look like.

The first problem with any seat projection is that all polls split Alberta into three regions for reporting purposes – Calgary, Edmonton, and rural Alberta. While that’s the most logical cut, just as downtown Calgary and suburban Calgary are two very different entities, lumping Red Deer and Peace River into the “rural Alberta” umbrella masks regional trends.

Moreover, the regional sample sizes in these polls are small, carrying large margins of error. It’s not at all surprising to see the PCs up by 4 in Calgary Monday morning, but trailing by 14 come dinner time. Yes, it’s possible a Wildrose chinook rolled across the city, but it’s more likely we’re dealing with the effects of small sample sizes and varying methodologies.

But even if we’re lucky enough to get completely accurate polls, extrapolating out seat totals is a fool’s errand. Seat projections in the last few federal elections have generally worked well, because we’ve had a good baseline to work with. If the Liberal vote is down 5 points in Ontario from 2008 to 2011, it’s not hard to do the math for each riding. However, the Wildrose Alliance was little more than a protest party last time Albertans went to the polls, so it’s counter productive to calculate their 2012 support using their 2008 vote. When a party rises from nothingness, it’s extremely difficult to predict vote patterns – there’s a reason seat projections showed the NDP winning anywhere from 20 to 70 seats in Quebec last spring, and a reason projects a Wildrose seat range of between 27 and 74 seats.

Toss in wild 4-way splits in Edmonton, incumbency effects, riding redistricting, and a map skewed to favour rural Alberta, and we’re dealing with Alberta’s most unpredictable election in a long time.

So the bottom line is we don’t know what the next legislature will look like, but if the vote stays close, Alberta’s first ever minority government is a distinct posibility. So what happens then?

The first thing to consider is the likelihood of defections. A floor crossing epidemic has spread across Alberta in recent years, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a handful of Progressive Conservatives take a step to the right after the election. Few PC MLAs supported Redford when she ran for leader, and she hasn’t exactly endeared herself to them over the past month. Many in her caucus share the same Wildrose positions Redford spent the campaign ridiculing, and the prospect of an NDP-supported Redford budget might be too much for them to bear.

Hell, if Smith is only a handful of seats shy of a majority, expect an exodus. PC MLAs have never sat on the opposition benches, and many chose their party colours merely because they saw the PCs as the only avenue to power. It’s not like Danielle Smith has her hands full of “Cabinet material” candidates to choose from, so she wouldn’t hesitate for a second to offer Cabinet posts to entice one or two Tories across the floor.

But let’s assume for a moment that Redford holds the PC ship together – maybe the PCs even find themselves ahead of the Wildrosers. The focus then shifts to the Liberals and NDP, who will likely win 4 to 10 seats between them. The Saskatchewan Liberals found themselves in a similar situation in 1996, and their decision to take Cabinet posts in an NDP government eventually led to the demise of that party. So it was somewhat curious when Liberal leader Raj Sherman began the negotiation process during an online debate yesterday, by asking Smith and Redford if they’d name him Minister of Health.

While I don’t think the good doctor will get his wish, nearly everyone I’ve talked to assumes the PCs would cut some kind of deal with what’s left of the left – even if they win fewer seats than the Wildrosers. But I’m not convinced.

The Liberals and NDP have spent decades waiting for the PC empire to crumble and if Smith offers them a deal – say some democratic reform measures and a hold on the more objectionable parts of Wildrose platform – I wouldn’t be shocked to see an unholly alliance. After all, seeing the Wildrose Party in power would surely plunge the PCs into infighting and a leadership race.

For the Wildrose Party, the benefits of a deal with the left are obvious – the aforementioned PC chaos, and a chance to govern “non-scarily” thanks to the calming influence of the Liberals and NDP (think Stephen Harper from 2006 to 2011). Keep in mind, Wildrose campaign manager Tom Flanagan has gone on record as stating he saw nothing wrong with Harper’s threat to cut a deal with the separatists and socialists in 2004, after winning fewer seats than Paul Martin. Smith sounded like she was laying the groundwork for this type of arrangement during the leaders debate, when she went out of her way to compliment Raj Sherman and talked about how she’s been able to work with the NDP in the legislature.

As strange as it may sound, life may soon be imitating the scenes from a satirical 2010 press gallery video, featuring Brian Mason barking orders (“left, left, left“) at Danielle Smith and a Wildrose caucus decked out in orange NDP shirts. Hell, the video even features a cameo from then-independent MLA Raj Sherman.

Predicting the Unexpected

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Polls, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

I’ll announce the winners from my election pool later this week. One of the questions there asked which polling company’s final poll numbers would hit closest to the mark.

You can browse the numbers here. To pick a winner, I simply added up the difference between their numbers and the results, producing the following:

Angus Reid: 5.2%
Nanos: 5.5%
Ipsos: 6.0%
Decima: 6.4%
Leger: 7.2%
Abacus: 9.0%
Forum: approx 9% (BQ and Green numbers extrapolated)
Ekos: 10.3%
Compass: 14.0%

So congrats to those of you who picked Angus. The top 6 companies on that list were within the margin of error on their numbers, so they too deserve a round of applause.

As for the seat projections, here’s the total seat miss:

Riding by Riding: 52
Calgary Grit: 56
Ekos: 58
Democratic Space: 58
Trendlines: 59 98
Election Prediction Project: 118

So a similar performance by all the mathematical models, except for 308 who has already offered a brief post mortem. I will add that my prediction was further off the mark from my projection – I made the same faulty assumptions as the EPP did, assuming strong incumbents could hold their seats.

The largest problem with my projection was the polls it fed off – specifically the low Conservative numbers (which I did foresee as a potential problem). If I plug the actual numbers in, my model projects: CPC 168.8, NDP 94.6, Lib 34.0, Bloc 10.1. The regional splits break down nicely too, except for Quebec where I’m a bit high on the Bloc and low on the NDP.

But this model was supposed to handle pollsters missing the mark. A few of the results fell outside the 95% confidence interval so this is, as Jack Layton would say, a hash tag fail.

I’ll put this one to bed for a bit and start tinkering again over the summer, but I think this speaks to the limitations of any seat projection model. They’re useful tools, but it’s incredibly naive to assume they can predict the total seat count, much less individual riding results.

But that’s ok. If they worked, it would make election nights a bore.

Final Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

I’ll follow up tomorrow with a round-up of all the final polls and projections but for now, here’s the running average. For those just tuning in, I assign weights to all polls based on sample size, the polling company’s track record on Canadian elections over the past 6 years, and the recency of the data:

CPC 36.5%
NDP 29.9%
Lib 21.3%
BQ 6.6%
Green 4.9%

Keep in mind, the Conservatives exceeded their final poll numbers by 2-3 percentage points in 2008. Whether or not that happens again remains to be seen, but they do have the best ground game and the most incumbent candidates. Their vote also tends to be older and, I suspect, is more likely to turn out at the polls. But that’s all conjecture on my part – the exercise here is to make projections using the data on hand.

Using the vote numbers above, I’ve simulated the election 10,000 times. These simulations factor in results from the past 3 elections, the demographics of each riding, by election results, and incumbency advantages. Each simulation looks at how regional shifts traditionally transfer to the riding level – after all, if the NDP vote jumps from 12% to 36% in Quebec, it doesn’t mean their vote will increase by 24 points in every riding…and it doesn’t mean their vote will triple in every riding. This is why the simulation model is, in my humble opinion, superior to all other models out there. It doesn’t say the Tories will win a given seat – it only says they have a 70% chance of winning a given seat.

Finally, when running the simulations, I also consider the fact that the polls could simply be off the mark, as they have been in some recent elections.

For the long and boring explanation of this methodology, click here.

So, with that said…drumroll please…

CPC: 139 to 163 seats (mean: 151.0)
NDP: 76 to 106 seats (mean: 90.9)
Lib: 35 to 58 seats (mean: 46.9)
BQ: 9 to 30 seats (mean: 18.5)
Ind: 0.6

I would love to tighten some of those confidence intervals up, but the reality is this is as close to certain as we can be given the public polling data on hand. Quebec is a complete wild card this election, since there isn’t a projection model out there capable of saying what a 30-point jump in NDP support actually means in terms of seats.

All 10,000 simulations had the same order of the parties, with the Conservatives winning a majority 28% of the time. So we may have to stay up late to see whether or not Harper gets that long sought after majority…or at least is close enough to “top it up” with a few floor crossers.

Now, what I like about this simulation model is that it’s 100% data driven. I haven’t arbitrarily decided who is or isn’t a star candidate, or tweaked the model to get the results I want. So like all seat projection systems, it should be used as a tool to make predictions, not as a prediction in and of itself.

This is why I’ve spent the weekend going riding by riding (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, Alberta, BC). Based on what the model is projecting and what the individual ridings look like, I’m going to stand by the prediction I made on James Bow’s blog yesterday:

CPC 146
NDP 83
Lib 55
BQ 22
Green 1
Ind 1

I may be wrong, and that’s cool if I am. It wouldn’t be the first time. By all means, make your own predictions below, and I’ll be sure to give a special shout out to whoever is closest to the mark.

Your Daily Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we’ve already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here’s the running average:

CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)
NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)
Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)
Bloc: 6.6% (-)
Green: 4.7% (-0.9)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model out there and, as such, it’s far more effective when projecting tight races or three-way races since it recognizes the riding could go either way depending on how the numbers break.

CPC: 139 to 163 seats (mean: 151.0)
NDP: 78 to 108 seats (mean: 93.6)
Lib: 34 to 57 seats (mean: 45.2)
Bloc: 8 to 28 seats (mean: 17.6)
Ind: 0.6

Odds of Tory victory: 100%
Odds of Tory majority: 29% (up from 20% on Friday)
Odds of NDP official opposition: 100%

Since Friday, the NDP are up another 15 seats on average, with the Liberals down 10 and the Bloc down 5. The NDP range in Quebec now sits at an astonishing 33 to 58 seats. However, even though the polls are good for them, if you happen to find yourself in Vegas this weekend, it might be safer to bet on the low end of that. In a lot of close races, on the ground organization will make a difference, and that’s one area where the NDP are lacking in Quebec. Heck, it’s unclear whether some of their candidates will even be around to vote for themselves. I’m not trying to be snide, I’m just trying to point out the weakness in any seat projection model – the same problem would present itself if the Liberals surged across Alberta. We’ll have to wait until Monday to see how it plays out.

Becoming almost as unpredictable as Quebec is Ontario. Decima has the Liberals winning in the province, while Ipsos has them 13 points back of the NDP, in third. As a result, the 95% confidence interval for number of Liberal seats there ranges from 16 up to 33. There are very few safe seats left in this Liberal fortress.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Your Daily Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

The big update will wait until the final round of polls come in this weekend but, for now, the latest from Nanos, Ekos, and Decima have been added.

CPC: 36.1% (-0.2)
NDP: 27.7% (+1.1)
Lib: 22.7% (-1.1)
Bloc: 6.6% (-0.3)
Green: 5.6% (+0.1)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model out there and, as such, it’s far more effective when projecting tight races or three-way races since it recognizes the riding could go either way depending how the numbers break.

CPC: 137 to 162 seats (mean: 149.2)
NDP: 63 to 94 seats (mean: 78.1)
Lib: 44 to 68 seats (mean: 56.7)
Bloc: 12 to 35 seats (mean: 23.2)
Ind: 0.8

Odds of Tory victory: 100%
Odds of Tory majority: 20% (down from 26% on Wednesday)
Odds of NDP official opposition: 97%

Since Wednesday, the NDP are up another 9 seats on average, and are now projected to win 23 to 51 in Quebec, 15 to 22 in Ontario, and 7 to 14 in BC. Those confidence intervals should narrow over the weekend once we’re hit with a batch of new large-sample polls, but there’s a lot of volatility out there right now, so I suspect we’ll have to wait until election day to see how a lot of seats break.

Remember, numbers could shift over the weekend. This isn’t a prediction for Monday – it’s an approximation of how the current polling numbers translate into seats.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Your Daily Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Fun with Numb3rs, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

Today’s vote numbers include the new Nanos, Ekos, Angus, and Forum polls:

Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):

CPC: 36.3% (-1.5)
NDP: 26.6% (+3.5)
Lib: 23.8% (-1.5)
Bloc: 6.9% (-0.4)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model for Canadian seat totals, and I feel this gives it a huge advantage. Other models will either undercount NDP seats in Quebec by showing them as a strong second everywhere, or they’ll overcount by projecting them as a slim first everywhere. This model recognizes they’ll win some of those “close seconds” and lose some of those “close firsts”…AND it recognizes that a 30-point swing won’t be uniform across the entire province. Yes, it means I can only peg the NDP seat range at between 15 and 44 seats in Quebec – but that’s all we really CAN say at this point, given the public polling data available.

CPC: 138 to 163 seats (mean: 150.4)
NDP: 54 to 86 seats (mean: 69.3)
Lib: 46 to 72 seats (mean: 58.9)
Bloc: 17 to 40 seats (mean: 28.5)
Ind: 0.9

Odds of Tory majority: 26% (down from 54% yesterday)

With our first batch of post-Easter polling data to feast on, there has been a lot of movement since yesterday. The NDP have jumped close to 20 seats, into second place. The Liberals and Conservatives are each down 5 seats, with the Bloc down 10.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Your Daily Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

Given the number of polls we can expect this week, I’ll offer a quick seat projection update each afternoon around this time. For today:

Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):

CPC: 37.8% (-0.8)
Lib: 25.3% (-0.4)
NDP: 23.1% (+1.1)
Bloc: 7.3% (-0.3)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how historical shifts traditionally transfer to individual ridings, and the chance that the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

CPC: 143 to 168 seats (mean: 155.3)
Lib: 51 to 76 seats (mean:63.7)
NDP: 39 to 64 seats (mean: 50.2)
Bloc: 27 to 47 seats (mean: 37.9)
Ind: 1

Odds of Tory majority: 54% (down from 69% yesterday)

Since yesterday, the NDP are up 8 seats, with the Bloc down 4.5, the Tories down 3, and the Liberals down 0.5 – Quebec remains the wild card with the model projecting an average 15.2 seats for them there, but with a 95% confidence interval of 6 to 28 seats. So it’s still very much up in the air.

If you’re looking for an “on the ground” assessment of how the seats might break in Quebec, Fact Checker offers a detailed synopsis here.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Poll Soup: What the NDP surge means

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Polls, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

Trying to make sense of what the NDP’s Quebec surge means in terms of seats is a difficult game. For starters, most public polls lump all of Quebec together when, in reality, a voter in Montreal is very different from a voter in Abitibi. Just because the Liberals or Conservatives are down province-wide, it doesn’t mean their incumbents are in danger, because their vote is so concentrated.

Even more challenging is trying to understand how a surge like this will be spread across the province. Most seat projections use the 2008 election as their baseline – my model is based primarily on 2008, but it also factors in the previous 2 elections and a regression “prediction” based on riding demographics. I think that’s a key improvement since it includes information about the voters, not just how they’ve voted in the past, but even then, all that data is from the old reality. We’re living in a very new reality.

If the NDP doubles or triples their Quebec-wide vote, it’s impossible to predict what the impact will be in each individual riding. The simulation model I use factors this in to a certain extent, which is why I report the probability of a given seat going to each party, rather than boldly saying if they’ll will win or lose. But the end result of this is a 95% confidence interval for NDP seats in Quebec of 3 to 19 – that’s hardly a precise target, and there are a lot of seats they have between a 4% and 8% chance of winning…with a few more polls showing the Dippers in first, that range will creep up.

Pundits Guide has a good article on the danger of taking these projections as the gospel truth. It’s also important to remember that a lot can change in a week – just because something is projected today, it doesn’t mean it will come to pass on May 2nd.

So with all those caveats, here’s where we stand with 7 days to go (change since last week in brackets):

CPC 38.6% (+0.5)
Lib 25.7% (-1.3)
NDP 22.0% (+1.9)
BQ 7.6% (-0.7)
Green 5.1% (-0.4)

Keep in mind that with the exception of a turkey-dinner fueled Nanos poll, we haven’t seen data from any phone calls conducted since last Wednesday (NOTE – I ran this before today’s Innovative and Environics polls were released).

So the above vote and the following seat projections could very well change significantly in the coming days. As such, I’ll be back with updated projections later this week, a closer look at the seats to watch in each region over the weekend, and a final projection on Sunday night. Also, I’ll post daily seat projections on Twitter.

Not surprisingly, the largest NDP movement has come in Quebec, where they’ve gone from a 0-7 seat range last week, up to a 3-18 range this week. These gains have come almost exclusively at the Bloc’s expense, with Liberal and Conservative seat ranges in Quebec unchanged from last week:

To get a better sense of how well the model is handling the wacky world of Quebec politics, consider the following two riding polls, released today (and fielded last week):

Brome Mississquoi – Bloc 32%, Lib 26%, NDP 26%, CPC 11%
Chambly Borduas – Bloc 37%, NDP 24%, Lib 15%, CPC 7%

Comparatively speaking, my model has Brome as a 35% chance of going Bloc, 35% chance of going Liberal, and 28% chance of going NDP. Which makes a lot of sense given the riding survey findings. It also underscores why a probability model is so much better for these kind of ridings. A simple projection would just put it down as a Bloc victory, without recognizing there’s a very good chance the Liberals and NDP could very well win it.

In Chambly, I still show the Bloc with a 96% chance of winning, with the NDP at just 4% – once again, this is consistent with the riding poll that has the Bloc up by 13 points.

Poll Soup: And here comes the NDP?

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

Tons of polls out today, with something for everyone.

If you’re a Liberal, you’re no doubt salivating at eating into the 8-point Tory lead in today’s Decima and yesterday’s Ekos polls. The NDP are surging in the latest from Leger and Angus Reid, with the latter showing them tied for second with the Liberals. The Tories, meanwhile, enjoy double-digit leads in Nanos and Forum polls.

Put it together and what have you got? Not a huge shift from last week, with the NDP up and the Tories down: (change since last week in brackets)

CPC 38.1% (-1.1)
Lib 27.0% (-0.3)
NDP 20.1% (+1.7)
BQ 8.3% (-0.4)
Green 5.5% (-0.9)

Translating this to seats, we see a similar shift, with the Dippers up and the Tories down:

Last week, the Conservative seat range was 141-168 seats, with a 46% chance at a majority. This week, their range is 138-162, with the majority odds down to 22%. For the Dippers, their pre-debate range of 22-35 seats has jumped to 28-42…and there are now 7 seats in Quebec they have at least a 5% chance of taking, with Outremont (89%), Gatineau (44%), and Hull-Aylmer (30%) the most promising.

As I’ve said before, I don’t want to post seat-by-seat numbers, since models like this work far better at the aggregate level and can’t possibly take into account all the riding-level dynamics. But I recognize the fun in this, so here are a few of the ridings to watch. Just please bear in mind that these projections are all based on regional shifts – just because the Tories are up in Ontario, it doesn’t mean they’re up in Ottawa, and a good (or bad) local campaign or candidate, can make a huge difference. And, of course, this is a reflection of current polls – this isn’t a prediction of where support levels will be on E-Day.

With all those disclaimers in place (also: do not use seat projections and operate heavy machinery), I’ll gladly take requests for others in the comments section:

-In PEI, the Liberals gace a 28% chance of taking back Egmont, but the Tories gace a 38% in Malpeque and 33% in Charlottetown.

-Justin Trudeau is at a 75% chance to hold in Papineau.

-Kingston and the Islands is the most vulnerable Liberal seat in Ontario (25% hold), with Sudbury, Mississauga-Erindale, Vaughan, Trinity-Spadina, Oak Ridges-Markham, and Kitchener-Waterloo all at between 20-30% chances of being picked up.

-Linda Duncan is at an 84% chance of holding Strathcona, with Edmonton East a 1-in-10 shot for the NDP and Edmonton Centre a 1-in-10 shot for the Liberals.

(click here for methodology)

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