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Alberta Votes Day 28: What to expect tomorrow
I’ve already written about the difficulties of using seat projection models due to the unique circumstances of this Alberta election. So rather than crunch the numbers, I thought it might prove more useful to conduct a “wisdom of the masses” exercise, by looking at the predictions being made in the Great Alberta Election pool. Here’s […]
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Alberta Votes Day 24: Sleeping Arrangements at Minority Motel
Above: Preview of post-election Cabinet meetings? Despite a lackluster debate performance by Alison Redford, a pair of post-debate polls show the Wildrose margin down to 7 points. With daily controversies dogging Danielle Smith, there’s no guarantee that lead will hold and, even if it does, it’s impossible to accurately project what the next legislature will […]
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Predicting the Unexpected
I’ll announce the winners from my election pool later this week. One of the questions there asked which polling company’s final poll numbers would hit closest to the mark. You can browse the numbers here. To pick a winner, I simply added up the difference between their numbers and the results, producing the following: Angus […]
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Final Seat Projections
I’ll follow up tomorrow with a round-up of all the final polls and projections but for now, here’s the running average. For those just tuning in, I assign weights to all polls based on sample size, the polling company’s track record on Canadian elections over the past 6 years, and the recency of the data: […]
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Your Daily Seat Projections
My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we’ve already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here’s the running average: CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)Bloc: 6.6% (-)Green: 4.7% (-0.9) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts […]
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Your Daily Seat Projections
The big update will wait until the final round of polls come in this weekend but, for now, the latest from Nanos, Ekos, and Decima have been added. CPC: 36.1% (-0.2)NDP: 27.7% (+1.1)Lib: 22.7% (-1.1)Bloc: 6.6% (-0.3)Green: 5.6% (+0.1) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling […]
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Your Daily Seat Projections
Today’s vote numbers include the new Nanos, Ekos, Angus, and Forum polls: Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets): CPC: 36.3% (-1.5)NDP: 26.6% (+3.5)Lib: 23.8% (-1.5)Bloc: 6.9% (-0.4)Green: 5.5% (+0.4) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have […]
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Your Daily Seat Projections
Given the number of polls we can expect this week, I’ll offer a quick seat projection update each afternoon around this time. For today: Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets): CPC: 37.8% (-0.8)Lib: 25.3% (-0.4)NDP: 23.1% (+1.1)Bloc: 7.3% (-0.3)Green: 5.5% (+0.4) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into […]
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Poll Soup: What the NDP surge means
Trying to make sense of what the NDP’s Quebec surge means in terms of seats is a difficult game. For starters, most public polls lump all of Quebec together when, in reality, a voter in Montreal is very different from a voter in Abitibi. Just because the Liberals or Conservatives are down province-wide, it doesn’t […]
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Poll Soup: And here comes the NDP?
Tons of polls out today, with something for everyone. If you’re a Liberal, you’re no doubt salivating at eating into the 8-point Tory lead in today’s Decima and yesterday’s Ekos polls. The NDP are surging in the latest from Leger and Angus Reid, with the latter showing them tied for second with the Liberals. The […]