Your Daily Seat Projections

Today’s vote numbers include the new Nanos, Ekos, Angus, and Forum polls:

Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):

CPC: 36.3% (-1.5)
NDP: 26.6% (+3.5)
Lib: 23.8% (-1.5)
Bloc: 6.9% (-0.4)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model for Canadian seat totals, and I feel this gives it a huge advantage. Other models will either undercount NDP seats in Quebec by showing them as a strong second everywhere, or they’ll overcount by projecting them as a slim first everywhere. This model recognizes they’ll win some of those “close seconds” and lose some of those “close firsts”…AND it recognizes that a 30-point swing won’t be uniform across the entire province. Yes, it means I can only peg the NDP seat range at between 15 and 44 seats in Quebec – but that’s all we really CAN say at this point, given the public polling data available.

CPC: 138 to 163 seats (mean: 150.4)
NDP: 54 to 86 seats (mean: 69.3)
Lib: 46 to 72 seats (mean: 58.9)
Bloc: 17 to 40 seats (mean: 28.5)
Ind: 0.9

Odds of Tory majority: 26% (down from 54% yesterday)

With our first batch of post-Easter polling data to feast on, there has been a lot of movement since yesterday. The NDP have jumped close to 20 seats, into second place. The Liberals and Conservatives are each down 5 seats, with the Bloc down 10.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Fun with Numb3rs, Seat Projections

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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