Given the number of polls we can expect this week, I’ll offer a quick seat projection update each afternoon around this time. For today:
Popular Vote (change since yesterday in brackets):
CPC: 37.8% (-0.8)
Lib: 25.3% (-0.4)
NDP: 23.1% (+1.1)
Bloc: 7.3% (-0.3)
Green: 5.5% (+0.4)
As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how historical shifts traditionally transfer to individual ridings, and the chance that the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.
CPC: 143 to 168 seats (mean: 155.3)
Lib: 51 to 76 seats (mean:63.7)
NDP: 39 to 64 seats (mean: 50.2)
Bloc: 27 to 47 seats (mean: 37.9)
Ind: 1
Odds of Tory majority: 54% (down from 69% yesterday)
Since yesterday, the NDP are up 8 seats, with the Bloc down 4.5, the Tories down 3, and the Liberals down 0.5 – Quebec remains the wild card with the model projecting an average 15.2 seats for them there, but with a 95% confidence interval of 6 to 28 seats. So it’s still very much up in the air.
If you’re looking for an “on the ground” assessment of how the seats might break in Quebec, Fact Checker offers a detailed synopsis here.