Your Daily Seat Projections

My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we’ve already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here’s the running average:

CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)
NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)
Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)
Bloc: 6.6% (-)
Green: 4.7% (-0.9)

As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts in regional support have historically transferred to individual ridings, and the chance the pollsters could just miss the mark, like in some previous elections.

This is the only simulation model out there and, as such, it’s far more effective when projecting tight races or three-way races since it recognizes the riding could go either way depending on how the numbers break.

CPC: 139 to 163 seats (mean: 151.0)
NDP: 78 to 108 seats (mean: 93.6)
Lib: 34 to 57 seats (mean: 45.2)
Bloc: 8 to 28 seats (mean: 17.6)
Ind: 0.6

Odds of Tory victory: 100%
Odds of Tory majority: 29% (up from 20% on Friday)
Odds of NDP official opposition: 100%

Since Friday, the NDP are up another 15 seats on average, with the Liberals down 10 and the Bloc down 5. The NDP range in Quebec now sits at an astonishing 33 to 58 seats. However, even though the polls are good for them, if you happen to find yourself in Vegas this weekend, it might be safer to bet on the low end of that. In a lot of close races, on the ground organization will make a difference, and that’s one area where the NDP are lacking in Quebec. Heck, it’s unclear whether some of their candidates will even be around to vote for themselves. I’m not trying to be snide, I’m just trying to point out the weakness in any seat projection model – the same problem would present itself if the Liberals surged across Alberta. We’ll have to wait until Monday to see how it plays out.

Becoming almost as unpredictable as Quebec is Ontario. Decima has the Liberals winning in the province, while Ipsos has them 13 points back of the NDP, in third. As a result, the 95% confidence interval for number of Liberal seats there ranges from 16 up to 33. There are very few safe seats left in this Liberal fortress.

(short methodology, long methodology)

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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