Quebec Votes Tonight

Today, Quebecers head to the polls, ready to elect what may be the least scary PQ government in the province’s history. That’s not a commentary on Marois, who is running on a disgustingly xenophobic platform. But even if the PQ gets a majority, it will be a majority built on only a third of the votes, at a time when there is no real appetite for another referendum. Premier Marois will change the country’s political dynamic and will put federal politicians on the hot seat, but this outcome won’t prompt the large-scale national panic that usually follows a PQ victory.

That is, assuming she wins. As I wrote on Friday, the conditions are ripe for a surprise – though that surprise would likely only be in the size of Marois’ win, or the composition of the opposition benches.

I’ll be blogging the results as they roll in tonight, but won’t hazard a guess as to the outcome. Here are the final polls and projections from those who are:

Forum (Sep 3, n = 2781 robo-dial)
PQ 36%
Lib 29%
CAQ 25%
QS 6%

Ekos (Aug 31 to Sep 3, n = 1749 robo-dial)
PQ 36.0%
CAQ 24.5%
Lib 23.2%
QS 10.7%

CROP (Aug 27-29, n = 1002 phone)
PQ 32%
CAQ 28%
Lib 26%
QS 9%

Leger (Aug 29-31, n = 1856 online)
PQ 33%
CAQ 28%
Lib 27%
QS 7% PQ 63, Lib 33, CAQ 27, QS 2 (PQ 34.1%, Lib 27.9%, CAQ 26.3%, QS 7.1%)

Too Close to Call: PQ 66, Lib 33, CAQ 24, QS 2

Democratic Space: PQ 55, CAQ 35, Lib 33, QS 2

Forum: PQ 72

Clare Durand from WAPOR bucks the trend, concluding the undecideds will break Charest’s way, giving him a 33.1% to 29.5% edge in the popular vote and a minority government.

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9 responses to “Quebec Votes Tonight”

  1. People in Quebec want someone to take on harper. He hasn’t given one thought about them. He cut arts funding, punted Kyoto, gutted the Environmental Assessment Act, etc etc. In fact, a lot of this seems to be a referendum on Harper and people think Charest was too close to him. However, I am sure Harper is frothing at the mouth to take on the PQ. He is undoubtedly playing it to become the hero of Canadian soverignty and push back on the PQ in “the name of Canada”. In fact, he won’t give a rats behind about it, but it may be a good poltical tactic. Harper’s legacy just might be the PM who pushed Quebec into separation or at least a vote for it. Harper has lacked leadership all over the place whether its Quebec, health care, first nations, energy, the arctic, etc. Much lip service, no actions. It will all come back on him.

  2. The question isn’t so much what the polls themselves say, as it is about how the vote splits in various ridings: areas where the PQ does well tend to go overwhelmingly for the PQ, which should tend to overrepresent their support in a robodialled survey.

    Still, ridings where the LPQ has been a stronger contender could easily swing any which way in a close contest.

  3. As a British Columbian I hope the Quebec election creates a monumental thorn in Harper’s side. Make that “horn” as in gored.

    Quebec could serve as a powerful Eastern force to anchor BC’s own mounting conflict with Ottawa and Alberta.

  4. Not scary? If the PQ wins a majority they can push through that “disgustingly xenophobic platform”. Do we only care about keeping Quebec in Canada no matter the cost? We tossed the Anglos under the bus in the ’70s, we will now look away as they PQ goes after the “money” (read Jews) and “ethnic” voters? My Canada doesn’t include that kind of Quebec.

  5. Interesting to see some people cheering for a PQ victory in the hopes that it would damage Harper. Real classy to put the country at risk to score political points – not to mention the people of Quebec who will have to live under Marois’ awful laws.

    • One could argue as to who is putting the country at greater risk. Harper’s policies are threatening the entire country and our reputation abroad. Corporatism at its worst. Quebec sovereignty is a minor blip in comparison to the damage he is doing. It is time in this country to get rid of the “first past the post” approach to elections.

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