Polls

Poll Position

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

Liblogs was engulfed in a virulent debate this morning about why the Nanos numbers were so far off from everyone else. Well, that didn’t last long:

Nanos: CPC 38, Lib 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, Green 6
Decima: CPC 37, Lib 24, NDP 17, BQ 8, Green 11
Ekos: CPC 36, Lib 25, NDP 19, BQ 8, Green 12

The only significant difference is on the Green Party vote, which is definitely a reflection of the Nanos questions being closed and the Greens being prompted as a response on the other polls.

Mid-Week July News

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

I’ll be launching the “Biggest Election” contest later tomorrow (some good posts on the subject can be found here and here)

Until then, a mish-mash of news stories:

1. Kady O’Malley calls BS on Jennifer Wright’s claim that Green Shift has received “numerous angry and threatening calls and emails” from people mistakenly thinking they were affiliated with the Liberal Party. I must say it seems odd a normal person would be enraged about a plan not mentioned on Green Shift’s website to the point where they would call the contact number on the site to complain.

If this is happening, I feel kind of sorry for GRIT Calgary who must get hundreds of angry calls a year from irate conservatives upset about something they wrote on their damn blog.

2. Kady’s most excellent blog recaps today’s goings-on at the Ethics Committee In and Out hearings.

3. There’s new news about the alleged grewalling of the Cadman tape but, at this point, I don’t really care. The fact is, Harper said what he said – he hasn’t denied that. So everything else, while perhaps relevant to the lawsuit (and I don’t even see how it is), doesn’t change that in the least. He said he was aware of “financial considerations” regardless of what may have happened to the tape- that’s all that’s really relevant here.

4. As someone who enjoys numbers and politics, I can’t begin to describe just how much this site rocks! Simulations! Projections! And heaps and heaps of polling data! For what it’s worth, their current model has Obama pegged at a 68.8% chance of victory.

There’s something happening here, What it is ain’t exactly clear

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2008 Alberta Election, Polls | Leave a comment

A pair of pre-election polls were released this week, painting very different pictures of the upcoming Alberta election. If you only look at the horse race numbers, there’s not much to be cheerful about in Liberal land – the Strategic Counsel had the PCs at 58% of decided voters, while Leger had them at 49%. I tend to think the former fell victim to a bit of federal/provincial confusion (they didn’t put leader names in the question) but even the second set of numbers leave the parties pretty much where they were at the end of the last election campaign.

Above and beyond that, the Tories should be feeling pretty good since they do better with older Albertans (who vote) and rural Albertans (whose votes are worth more). If you buy the Strategic Counsel poll, just about the only good news for the Alberta Liberals is that 54% of Albertans think 37 years is too long for one party rule (almost half of Albertans don’t?!?!). Even the 39% who think it’s time for a change in that poll is dwarfed by the number who want to re-elect Mr. Ed.

Today’s poll tells a completely different story. A third of voters are undecided and the decided votes breaks down as:

Progressive Conservatives 32%
Alberta Liberals 18%
New Democrats 7%
Wild Rose Alliance 6%
Greens 3%

Not bad if you’re a PC, ‘till you look at this one:

Time for a Change 46%
Re-elect the Tories 35%

Which means the undecideds are, by and large, breaking against the government. Calgary, especially, has got to be an area of concern for them with Taft in a statistical tie with Stelmach on the “best Premier” question.

Of course, I don’t expect the Alberta Liberals to lose Redmonton, even though both polls say they might, so I can see why Conservatives wouldn’t expect to lose a city they have dominated for 40 years. But, I’m telling ya, I was in Calgary for most of last year and there was something in the air. Ed Stelmach has become a punch line…but not in the benign “Ralph Klein is a drunk” way – in the much more dangerous “we hate Ed Stelmach” sort of way.

So, with the writ expected to fall within the next dozen days, it’s looking like this will be an election to watch.

UPDATE: More numbers today, with pretty damning approval ratings for Stelmach on most issues, especially the two biggest in the province right now. On health care, 28% approve and 60% disapprove, while on affordable housing 23% approve and 63% disapprove.

Meltdown

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

Lib 32
CPC 30
NDP 15
Green 12
BQ 10 (guess)

You know what this means don’t you?

Well, not much except the Tories will be “going up” in the next poll…

Poll Parade

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

The poll numbers seem a bit all over the place over the past week, with the Tory lead ranging from 14 points to…zero. Here’s the average of the Decima, Ipsos, SES, and SC numbers that have been published over the past seven days:

CPC 35.75
Lib 30.75
NDP 17.25
Green 9.5
BQ 8.5

In other words, we’re right back to where we were last election. Tax cuts may push the Tories up a bit and Mulroney may drag them down but, apart from some troubles for the Bloc in Quebec, there doesn’t seem to be any sort of major shift in the lay of the land.

Monday News

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

1. ABCer had the exact same thought I had after reading Jay Hill’s attempt at spin in the Hill Times.

2. It got a bit overshadowed by the Mulroney saga but Dion’s poverty plan is an encouraging sign that the Liberals won’t be going green 24/7 during the next campaign. The reviews so far have been quite positive.

3. While Ipsos seems to be generally a bit bullish on Harper, a 14 point lead is mighty impressive. More worrisome for the Liberals should be latest “best PM” numbers from SES.

Weekend News

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

1. The latest Ipsos poll has Canadians warming to Stephen Harper. OK, so they may not yet feel about him the way Ellen DeGeneres feels about homeless puppies, but it’s getting there. 58% of Canadians want a majority government and 58% of those want a Tory majority. Which means Harper is looking at a pretty solid base of 34% of people who want a Tory majority.

2. Mario Silva has proposed a national “Pierre Elliot Trudeau” holiday to celebrate Xavier Trudeau’s birthday. In the words of UWHabs I just can’t wait to see the PET Day parade in downtown Calgary“.

3. Although it doesn’t look like we’ll get a crime election, I do kind of miss the prospect of the inevitable “child pornography moment” it would be sure to generate.

“If they have a problem with the area on dangerous offenders, and that’s the hill they want to die on, standing up for dangerous offenders in this country, that’s their decision,” Nicholson told reporters.

4. The PQ is proposing a bill that would prevent non-French speakers from running in elections or donating to political parties:

Under the proposed law, immigrants who can’t speak proper French after an appropriate apprenticeship in provincially funded language courses would be forbidden from running for election in provincial and municipal elections as well as those for school boards.

PQ Leader Pauline Marois said she sees the measure as “normal.”

Normal? Well, for South Africa, maybe. But to deny someone the right to run for School Board trustee on the West Island because they can’t speak French? This is absolutely insane.

Wednesday Round Up

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Alberta Politics, Calgary Municipal Politics, Polls | Leave a comment

Municipal: On the municipal election front, things are heating up. Imagine my surprise when my Tuesday night joindave newsletter had veiled references directed towards the Go Alnoor campaign not once, but twice. The first was a response to Dave’s proposal for six new taxes that Dave now says are not a “priority” [note to Love & co: How hard is it to just say no?]. The second was Dave explaining why he is losing the sign war.

On the policy front, Alnoor has released his 24 page platform. It’s quite possibly the most detailed policy platform ever released for a civic election in Calgary and I’d encourage all potential voters to read it. Hell, even if you’re not a Calgarian, for policy geeks, it’ll be more exciting than Maxim.

Provincial: While I wish I had time to read through the 192 pages of the AG’s report (and that’s just volume one), it continues to draw headlines. Daveberta gives a detailed run down of Stelmach’s refusal to fire his ministers. The same ministers who gave the auditor general the run around and didn’t see anything wrong with deceiving Albertans.

Federal: I’ve got to tell you, I’m kind of digging the fact that no matter how much the Liberals screw up, they’re still in a statistical tie with Harper. And bBringing in David Smith and John Rae to help with the next campaign is a step in the right direction for the grits.

Meanwhile, the man Smith and Rae helped win time and time again is recovering from heart surgery. Here’s hoping he’s up and running for the book tour.

And… for those who missed it, be sure to take a look at Conrad Black’s Rick Mercer Report appearance from last night.

Polls

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls | Leave a comment

The Globe has a very detailed poll out today on perceptions of Stephen Harper. There are a lot of interesting questions in there but the quick and dirty of it is that Harper isn’t all that popular with Canadians but Canadians are fairly happy with his government as a whole (at least on the right/track wrong track question).

Up For Grabs

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2008 Alberta Election, Alberta Politics, Polls | Leave a comment

Cameron Strategies has a new poll out and there’s a real Alberta stampede of voters away from Ed Stelmach. Still, the news isn’t all good for the Alberta Liberals, who can’t seem to capitalize on the “free agent voters” out there. The result is a remarkable 36% undecided rate – I don’t think I’ve ever seen numbers that high in political polls. As a result, the potential for one of those once in a generation Alberta political shifts is there…it remains to be seen if anyone is able to capitalize on it during the general election.

Province-Wide
PC 32% (-22% in January)
Lib 16% (+0%)
NDP 11% (+2%)
Alliance 5% (+2%)

Calgary
PC 30%
Lib 17%
NDP 8%
Alliance 5%

Ed Stelmach Approval Rating
Strongly approve 7%
Somewhat approve 38%
Somewhat dissaprove 20%
Strongly dissaprove 11%
(Calgary: 38% approve, 40% dissaprove)

Right Track/Wrong Track
Right direction 26% (-28% from January)
Wrong direction 30% (+20% from January)

Top Issues
Healthcare 29%
Homelessness 22%
Crime 17%
Infrastructure 15%
Education 13%
Rent Control 12%
Taxes 11%
Drugs 11%

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