Polls

April Poll Soup – Guergis Fallout?

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According to Frank Graves, the Jaffergis Imbruglio has caused Stephen Harper to “have cold beads of sweat popping out of his brow“. Well, the April poll numbers are in and, despite a slight dip Tory support, Harper’s lead over the Liberals actually went up. If the guy’s breaking into a cold sweat over that, he seriously needs to manage his stress level better.

For the Liberals, it seems unlikely they’ll be able to ride a “we won’t put Helena Guergis in Cabinet” platform to victory – they’re down nearly 5 points since February and have returned to last fall’s low-water mark of the Ignatieff era. The good news for them is that now, unlike then, Harper isn’t setting the electorate on fire (time for another piano concert perhaps?). It appears a lot of potential Liberal voters are parked with the NDP, Bloc, and Greens for the moment.

Angus Reid (April 29-30, n = 1014 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 28%
NDP 19%
BQ 11%
Green 7%

Leger (April 27-29, n = 1505 online)
CPC 36%
Lib 25%
NDP 20%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

EKOS (April 21-27, n = 2303 robo dialled)
CPC 31.9%
Lib 26.6%
NDP 17.6%
BQ 9.7%
Green 10.9%
Other 3.3%

Ipsos Reid (April 20-22, n = 1000 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Harris Decima (April 15-25, n=2,014 phone)
CPC 29%
Lib 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 11%
Green 12%

AVERAGE (change since March in brackets)

Conservative Party: 33.3% (-0.7%)
Liberal Party: 27.1% (-2.1%)
NDP: 18.5% (+0.5%)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.9% (+1.2%)
Green Party 9.6% (+0.9%)

For seat projections, check out riding by riding (CPC 130, Lib 85, BQ 53, NDP 40) or three hundred eight (CPC 126, Lib 99, BQ 51, NDP 32).

Post-Budget Poll Soup

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With the Tories widening their polling lead over the Liberals in March, it’s easy to attribute this to a post-Olympic bounce, or reaction to the federal budget. But the Olympic bounce logic never made much sense to me, and given I can’t even remember three details about the budget, I’d imagine it hasn’t had a huge impact on most regular Canadians.

Rather, I tend to attribute the change in support from January and February to the prorogation backlash gradually dissipating. The Conservatives certainly aren’t back to their end-of-2009 support levels, but a it looks to me like some disgruntled Tories are heading home.


Ekos (March 24-30, n=1855 demon dialled)
CPC 32.2%
Lib 27.0%
NDP 16.0%
BQ 9.0%
Green 12.7%
Other 3.1%

Angus Reid (March 25-26, n=1004 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 20%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

IpsosReid (March 16-18, n=1001 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Nanos (March 6-12, n = 1000 telephone)
CPC 34.7%
Lib 34.6%
NDP 17.8%
BQ 7.7%
Green 5.2%

AVERAGE (change since February in brackets)

Conservative Party: 34.0% (+0.8%)
Liberal Party: 29.2% (-2.8%)
NDP: 18.0% (+2.0%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.7% (-0.2%)
Green Party 8.7% (-0.2%)

IN OTHER POLLING NEWS…

For Liberals despondent over limp federal numbers, and lackluster approval numbers for Misters Charest, McGuinty, Campbell, and Graham, rest assured…we’ve still got PEI! The last bastion of Liberalism remains as red as Anne’s hair!

February Poll Soup: The New Normal

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We’ve had a fair chunk of polling out this month and the results are fairly consistent – a slim Tory lead, similar to what we saw in January, at the height of the prorogation backlash. The notable exception would be Environics, which had the Grits in front earlier this month.

Of course, every pundit has spent the past year talking about Harper’s Olympic bounce. I’m not sure I really see the logic behind it – it’s not like Alex Bilodeau is a Tory candidate, and we’ve seen a lot less of Harper over the past week than we usually do. But maybe that’s the point. Perhaps with Canadians ignoring politics, the anger over prorogation will fade.

We’ll find out over the next few weeks.

Ekos (Feb 10-16, n=3,600 auto-dialled)
CPC 31.2%
Lib 29.0%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 8.8%
Green 11.8%
Other 2.7%

Decima (Feb 4-14, n=4,045 phone)
CPC 32%
Lib 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 10%
Green 10%

Angus Reid (Feb 11-13, n=2,003 online)
CPC 34%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Environics (Feb 4-9, n=958 telephone)
CPC 33%
Lib 37%
NDP 13%
BQ 8%
Green 9%
Other 1%

Nanos (Jan 29-Feb 4, n = 1,002 telephone)
CPC 35.6%
Lib 33.9%
NDP 16.4%
BQ 8.5%
Green 5.6%

AVERAGE (change since January in brackets)

Conservative Party: 33.2% (+1.0%)
Liberal Party: 32.0% (+1.5%)
NDP: 16.0% (-0.7%)
Bloc Quebecois: 8.9% (-0.5%)
Green Party 8.9% (-0.3%)

January Poll Soup

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I neglected my monthly polling updates a bit during the end of 2009 – and can you blame me, given how bleak they looked? But, poll soup has returned, with the January 2010 numbers.

I could offer up some analysis but these numbers speak for themselves – it’s fairly evident what effect prorogation has had on Harper’s polling numbers.

Ekos (Jan 20-26, n = 2,823 auto dialed)
CPC 31.1%
Lib 31.6%
NDP 14.6%
BQ 9.1%
Green 11.0%

Angus Reid (Jan 25-26, n = 1,005 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 29%
NDP 19%
BQ 10%
Green 7%

Decima (Jan 21-24, n = 1,000 phone)
CPC 32%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 10%

Ipsos Reid (Jan 19-21, n = 1,000 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 31%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (Jan 5-8, n = 2,168 online/phone)
CPC 31%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

AVERAGE

CPC 32.2%
Lib 30.5%
NDP 16.7%
BQ 9.4%
Green 9.2%

Harper Quickly Losing The Elitist Vote

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Three polls out yesterday and today, all showing some erosion in Conservative support:

Angus Reid (Jan 12-13, n = 1077 online)

CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (Jan 5-8, n = 2168 online & phone)

CPC 31%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Ekos (Jan 6-12, n = 3730 demon dialed)

CPC 30.9%
Lib 29.3%
NDP 15.3%
BQ 10.2%
Green 11.9%
Other 2.3%

You know, I honestly didn’t expect there to be much backlash to this prorogation thing. And maybe it’s just temporary. But, for the moment at least, it certainly seems to be having an impact.

Now, it bears noting that the Liberals still can’t crack 30%, so it’s probably a little premature to start measuring the curtains at 24 Sussex. Ignatieff still needs to give voters a reason to vote for him, and I don’t think “I’ll prorogue less” is going to form the backbone of a winning campaign platform.

If you want to look beyond the horse race numbers, Angus Reid has a more thorough poll out that looks at prorogation, the effectiveness of the latest Liberal ads, and impressions of the leaders. (Which is a lot of fun – did you know that 3% of Canadians find Harper and Ignatieff exciting? I would love to meet these 3% of Canadians and take them on a roller coaster or something – it would probably do them a bit of good.)

On prorogation, around half of voters are at least paying some attention (up from last week), with the number paying close attention doubling from 11% to 20%. For procedural politics, that’s a pretty high number.

44% strongly disagree with Harper’s decision to prorogue, with the most common belief being that Harper did it out of self-interest. If he did, it’s safe to say it hasn’t exactly turned out that way, now has it?

UPDATE: Decima confirms the trend: 34-30.

On the bright side, Ignatieff was picked as "the leader you’d most like to attend an Isaiah Berlin leture with"

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Angus Reid has a fun poll out, where they ask “the beer question”, amongst others. In it, we learn that the mustached socialist is the “jock” of Canadian politics – he’s the one voters would like to have a beer with, or have on their sports team. Harper wins most of the “prime ministerial” questions – negotiating with other countries and representing Canada. Ignatieff, well, he’s the one voters would go to for a book recommendation, and they’d love to have him on their trivia team.

The question that really caught my eye was this one – “who would you prefer being Prime Minister in the event of another Quebec referendum?”. And, wouldn’t you know it? The firewall guy from Calgary wins hands down – 29% to 17% (for Ignatieff) to 10% (for Layton). It shows the kind of progress Harper has made in the eyes of voters over the past few years.

ALSO…

The other poll released this weekend (but fielded a month ago), shows McGuinty up 38% to 34% on Tim Hudak in Ontario. Nothing too surprising there – it’s well in line with what the Ontario polls have been saying over the past 5 or 6 months.

UPDATE: Angus vote numbers are out, and it’s 36-29…about the normal over the past few years…

Today in Prorogation

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1. From Tory MP MP Brent Rathgeber, comes this darling quote:

“Democracy and Parliament are not being sidestepped — they are only being suspended.”

I look forward to the campaign signs around St. Albert next election: “Suspend Democracy – Elect Rathgeber!”

2. The Economist weighs in, with a critical editorial on Harper’s decision to go prorogue.

3. Two polls are out today, with Ekos showing a narrowing of the Tory lead.

Angus Reid shows a majority of Canadians against the decision to prorogue – which is all swell and good, but it is likely worth mentioning that only a third of Canadians are paying attention to this story, and only one in ten are paying close attention to it. Ekos asks the question a bit differently, and finds that 52% of Canadians are clearly aware of Harper’s prorogation vacation.

Still, the polls found that 18% and 14% (on Angus and Ekos, respectively) of Conservative voters strongly disagree with the decision, so Harper may in fact be up against a bit of backlash on this. Getting Liberals and Dippers mad is one thing, but when your own voters turn against you, that’s a sign you may have miscalculated.

October Poll Soup: Turning 40

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The common opinion when looking at opinion polls seems to be that 40 is a magical number where majorities become possible and leads become “commanding”. Is this true? Well, it depends on the map, but it certainly does leave a psychological impact.

And the Tories are basically there, which means they’re polling higher now than the numbers they got on Election Day one year ago.

I only hope Yo Yo Ma recognizes the damage he’s doing to Canada…

Ekos (Oct 21-27, n = 3220 autodial)

CPC 38.4%
Lib 26.8%
NDP 16.7%
BQ 8.2%
GP 9.9%

Angus Reid (Oct 23-24, n = 1000 online)

CPC 40%
Lib 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
GP 7%

Ipsos Reid (Oct 20-22, n = 1000 phone)

CPC 40%
Lib 25%
NDP 13%
BQ 11%
GP 11%

Environics (October 15-21, n = 2000 phone)

CPC 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
GP 10%

Nanos (Oct 10-18, n = 1000 phone)

CPC 39.8%
Lib 30.0%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 8.9%
GP 4.6%

Strategic Counsel (Oct 2-4, n = 1000)

CPC 41%
Lib 28%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
GP 9%

(so, yeah, at least Peter Donolo knows what he’s getting into…)

OVERALL (change since September in brackets)

CPC 39.5% (+3.0%)
Lib 27.0% (-2.2%)
NDP 15.5% (nc…for the third straight update)
BQ 9.0% (-0.5%)
GP 8.6% (+0.2%)

So Michael Ignatieff now finds himself in Dion territory (in Quebec too). Now I know I’m going to sound like a crazy person when I say this but maybe, just maybe, Stephane Dion wasn’t responsible for all the problems facing the Liberal Party.

This situation is certainly reversible but it seems clear that the electorate has yet to find a reason to give up on Stephen Harper.

PROVINCIALLY…

Despite all that’s gone on in Canadian politics in recent years, there’s been one constant: the 3 Liberal Premiers in the 3 biggest provinces. McGuinty, Charest, and Campbell have all taken their lumps over the past 6 years, but they’ve always come out on top.

So it’s difficult to judge how deep their current wounds are.

In Quebec, Charest’s approval rating has plummeted and he now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with Marois which, given the demise of the ADQ and the Quebec electoral map, would mean a PQ victory.

In Ontario, McGuinty’s lead over Tim Hudak is down to 3 points, and a quarter of Liberal voters blame him for the eHealth fiasco. I haven’t seen any new BC polls this month, but at last glance, the BC NDP has ridden the HST backlash to first place in the polls. Not that it makes a huge difference since most people expect Campbell to bask in the Olympic glow then drive off into the sunset (just, please Gordon, don’t have a drink before hitting the road).

So while the recession seems to have strengthened Harper’s fragile hold on power, previously unbreakable provincial Premiers are on the ropes. Hell, even the Alberta PC Party and Newfoundland Danny Williams Party both got dealt recent by election losses. And with Gary Doer gone, Manitoba is back in play.

So the next round of provincial elections could prove to be very interesting.

Poll Soup Update

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There are four new polls out this week, showing a surprising amount of consistency between them – so it’s probably worth updating the rolling average:

Angus Reid (September 29-30, n = 1000 online)
CPC 37%
Lib 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%
Green 6%

Ekos (September 23-29, n = 3216 auto dialed)

CPC 36.0%
Lib 29.7%
NDP 13.9%
BQ 9.8%
Green 10.5%

Ipsos Reid (September 22-24, n = 1001 phone)

CPC 37%
Lib 30%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 9%

Leger (September 22-25, n = 3602 phone)

CPC 36%
Lib 30%
NDP 17%
BQ 8%
Green 8%

OVERALL (change since early September in brackets)

CPC 36.5% (+1.8%)
Lib 29.2% (-2.2%)
NDP 15.5% (nc)
BQ 9.5% (-0.2%)
Green 8.4% (+0.3%)

Even though the overall vote numbers represent an increase in Liberal support from the last election, this has prompted a new round of majority speculation. Andrew Coyne rightly points out that the Tories are positioned for gains in Ontario – something that could propel them to their elusive majority.

But I don’t think they’re there yet.

Coyne references the 4-poll average Tory lead of 42% to 33% in Ontario. A quick seat projection has the Tories grabbing an extra 5 seats with that spread…and maybe another 4 or 5 if things break really nicely for them. Nice, but not enough.

Now, if you just use Angus’ 14-point Ontario gap, the Tories hit 64 seats, a 13 seat gain. That’s only a majority if they hold their seats elsewhere…definitely not a sure thing in Quebec. To get into the magical 70 seat range needed for the majority, they’d need the NDP vote to collapse in Northern Ontario too. Because so long as the NDP wins 15 seats across the province, there are enough Liberal safe seats in Toronto to prevent the Tories from running up the score too much.

This is all fun speculation and who knows – maybe in 5 months we’ll be speculation about the road to a Liberal majority. The somewhat obvious messages from all this are that Ontario is important, the road to a majority is a long one, and the Liberals aren’t in great shape in Ontario these days. And yes, I’m aware that most of those observations fall under the category of “painfully obvious”.

ALSO…

There’s a new Harris Decima out today that shows Canadians would rather not have an election until 2013. This begs an interesting question – what percentage of Canadians would rather hold off until 2015? Or 2020? Hell, how many would say “screw it, let’s forget this unpleasant election business altogether“?

The poll also finds support for Jack Layton’s position on supporting the government until EI legislation passes. Which makes a certain amount of sense. Even though he’ll get pilloried for what’s an obviously hypocritical stand by the media, bloggers, and anyone who follows politics closely, Jack’s message doesn’t sound all that unreasonable to a general public fed up with the brinkmanship and squabbling in Ottawa.

Poll Soup Returns

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Let’s face it – no one’s paying attention to politics over the summer, save perhaps political blog geeks like myself. So I took a break from the monthly poll soup updates.

However, things are heating up again, and we were treated to a barrage of polls this week, making this a good time to survey the lay of the land:

Angus Reid (Sept 1-2, n = 1000 online)

CPC 33%
Lib 32%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
GP 7%

47% happy with the way the federal government has handled the economic crisis, with 45% unhappy

Strategic Counsel (Sept 3-6, n = 1000)

CPC 35%
Lib 30%
NDP 14%
BQ 12%
GP 9%

Ekos (Sept 2-8, n=2825 demon dialed)

CPC 34.2%
Lib 30.8%
NDP 14.8%
GP 10.1%
BQ 10.0%

28% prefer fall election, 72% want it later

Nanos (Aug 28 – Sept 2, n = 1000)

CPC 37.5%
Lib 33.4%
NDP 14.8%
BQ 9.7%
GP 4.6%

Harris-Decima (Aug 27 – Sept 6, n = 2000)

CPC 34%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
GP 10%
BQ 8%

Leger also released some Quebec numbers this week – the Bloc is up on the Libs 35% to 30%, with the NDP and Tories tied at 16% each

OVERALL (change since June in brackets)

CPC 34.7% (+2.7%)
Lib 31.4% (-2.5%)
NDP 15.5% (-0.3%)
BQ 9.7% (-0.1%)
Green 8.1% (+0.2%)

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