October Poll Soup: Turning 40

The common opinion when looking at opinion polls seems to be that 40 is a magical number where majorities become possible and leads become “commanding”. Is this true? Well, it depends on the map, but it certainly does leave a psychological impact.

And the Tories are basically there, which means they’re polling higher now than the numbers they got on Election Day one year ago.

I only hope Yo Yo Ma recognizes the damage he’s doing to Canada…

Ekos (Oct 21-27, n = 3220 autodial)

CPC 38.4%
Lib 26.8%
NDP 16.7%
BQ 8.2%
GP 9.9%

Angus Reid (Oct 23-24, n = 1000 online)

CPC 40%
Lib 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
GP 7%

Ipsos Reid (Oct 20-22, n = 1000 phone)

CPC 40%
Lib 25%
NDP 13%
BQ 11%
GP 11%

Environics (October 15-21, n = 2000 phone)

CPC 38%
Lib 26%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
GP 10%

Nanos (Oct 10-18, n = 1000 phone)

CPC 39.8%
Lib 30.0%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 8.9%
GP 4.6%

Strategic Counsel (Oct 2-4, n = 1000)

CPC 41%
Lib 28%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
GP 9%

(so, yeah, at least Peter Donolo knows what he’s getting into…)

OVERALL (change since September in brackets)

CPC 39.5% (+3.0%)
Lib 27.0% (-2.2%)
NDP 15.5% (nc…for the third straight update)
BQ 9.0% (-0.5%)
GP 8.6% (+0.2%)

So Michael Ignatieff now finds himself in Dion territory (in Quebec too). Now I know I’m going to sound like a crazy person when I say this but maybe, just maybe, Stephane Dion wasn’t responsible for all the problems facing the Liberal Party.

This situation is certainly reversible but it seems clear that the electorate has yet to find a reason to give up on Stephen Harper.

PROVINCIALLY…

Despite all that’s gone on in Canadian politics in recent years, there’s been one constant: the 3 Liberal Premiers in the 3 biggest provinces. McGuinty, Charest, and Campbell have all taken their lumps over the past 6 years, but they’ve always come out on top.

So it’s difficult to judge how deep their current wounds are.

In Quebec, Charest’s approval rating has plummeted and he now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with Marois which, given the demise of the ADQ and the Quebec electoral map, would mean a PQ victory.

In Ontario, McGuinty’s lead over Tim Hudak is down to 3 points, and a quarter of Liberal voters blame him for the eHealth fiasco. I haven’t seen any new BC polls this month, but at last glance, the BC NDP has ridden the HST backlash to first place in the polls. Not that it makes a huge difference since most people expect Campbell to bask in the Olympic glow then drive off into the sunset (just, please Gordon, don’t have a drink before hitting the road).

So while the recession seems to have strengthened Harper’s fragile hold on power, previously unbreakable provincial Premiers are on the ropes. Hell, even the Alberta PC Party and Newfoundland Danny Williams Party both got dealt recent by election losses. And with Gary Doer gone, Manitoba is back in play.

So the next round of provincial elections could prove to be very interesting.

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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