Harper Quickly Losing The Elitist Vote

Three polls out yesterday and today, all showing some erosion in Conservative support:

Angus Reid (Jan 12-13, n = 1077 online)

CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (Jan 5-8, n = 2168 online & phone)

CPC 31%
Lib 30%
NDP 18%
BQ 9%
Green 10%

Ekos (Jan 6-12, n = 3730 demon dialed)

CPC 30.9%
Lib 29.3%
NDP 15.3%
BQ 10.2%
Green 11.9%
Other 2.3%

You know, I honestly didn’t expect there to be much backlash to this prorogation thing. And maybe it’s just temporary. But, for the moment at least, it certainly seems to be having an impact.

Now, it bears noting that the Liberals still can’t crack 30%, so it’s probably a little premature to start measuring the curtains at 24 Sussex. Ignatieff still needs to give voters a reason to vote for him, and I don’t think “I’ll prorogue less” is going to form the backbone of a winning campaign platform.

If you want to look beyond the horse race numbers, Angus Reid has a more thorough poll out that looks at prorogation, the effectiveness of the latest Liberal ads, and impressions of the leaders. (Which is a lot of fun – did you know that 3% of Canadians find Harper and Ignatieff exciting? I would love to meet these 3% of Canadians and take them on a roller coaster or something – it would probably do them a bit of good.)

On prorogation, around half of voters are at least paying some attention (up from last week), with the number paying close attention doubling from 11% to 20%. For procedural politics, that’s a pretty high number.

44% strongly disagree with Harper’s decision to prorogue, with the most common belief being that Harper did it out of self-interest. If he did, it’s safe to say it hasn’t exactly turned out that way, now has it?

UPDATE: Decima confirms the trend: 34-30.

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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