Final Power Rankings

Trudeau Sophie danse

There isn’t a lot of suspense surrounding Sunday’s Liberal leadership vote. Pick the metric of your choice – fundraising, endorsements, hair volume – and Trudeau leads his nearest challenger by at least a 4:1 ratio. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in Twitter support, but Justin has 10 times more followers than the rest of the field combined.

The following table provides an overview of what little quantitative data we have on the race and offers a Power Rank, based on how these variables have translated to votes in past contests (methodology here).

Fundraising Endorsement Media Facebook Twitter Power Rank
Justin Trudeau $1,078,866 90% 77% 73,992 199,394 78% (+3)
Joyce Murray $225,310 8% 7% 2,147 5,848 9% (–)
Martha Hall Findlay $192,280 1% 7% 8,563 7,923 6% (-1)
Martin Cauchon $148,739 1% 4% 2,612 1,655 4% (–)
Karen McCrimmon $36,222 0% 3% 387 901 1.7% (–)
Deborah Coyne $31,651 0% 2% 501 2,199 1.5% (-1)


The bracketed number on the final column reflects changes from the last update – you can consider it a “momentum” score of sorts. Although that number shows Trudeau gaining ground, that’s completely a by-product of increased media attention – his share of the fundraising pie has actually dipped from 66% to 63%, with Joyce Murray and Martin Cauchon finishing strong on that front.

As I’ve stressed before, this isn’t a first ballot prediction, though it seems like as good a guess as any. I’d personally bet the “under” on 78% for Trudeau, but I do think he’s heading for a clear majority – and not just a “clear majority” by NDP standards.

In the end, whether Trudeau nabs 78%, or 63%, or the 112% some seem to be expecting, is irrelevant. Paul Martin received 94% of the vote and Michael Ignatieff got every vote, but both inherited deeply divided parties. While I have no doubt there will still be gripping from anonymous Liberals in the years to come, Team Trudeau has smartly run a positive and mostly unantagonistic campaign, that should leave Justin with relatively few enemies within the party.

That Trudeau exits this race untarnished and that the party exits this race united are far more important than whatever number is announced on Sunday.

What percentage of the weighted vote will Justin Trudeau get on the first ballot?
  



Posted on by CalgaryGrit in --- 2013 LPC Leadership Race, Fun with Numb3rs

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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10 Responses to Final Power Rankings

  1. Tom

    Your poll question is ambiguous. Do you mean on the first ballot, or after multiple ballots (should they happen)?

    • CalgaryGrit

      You are correct. I’ve changed it to the first ballot.

  2. Quito

    Percentage of the vote or percentage of weighted points?

    • CalgaryGrit

      Weighted.

      I’m assuming Justin will do a bit worse on the weighted total. Do we know if LPC will release the unweighted numbers?

      • Luke

        I heard rumours in some article about Martin Cauchon that the party might choose to not show anything but the final result. That was still under discussion (around a week ago?).

        If the party does that, I call bullshit. Billing this as the most open leadership contest ever and then not showing the results openly would be antithetical to what the party is supposed to be going for.

  3. Aman Hayer

    I’d say 55 percent if that were an option.

  4. Jordan

    Did you see the recent endorsement Martha posted on her website?

    • CalgaryGrit

      I’m running strictly off Eric Grenier’s endorsement tallies at 308.com for the endorsement section of these power rankings.

      It won’t have a huge impact on the overall rankings, but those provincial MLAs would be worth a bit.

  5. Pingback: Trudeau’s Win by the Numbers | Calgary Grit

  6. DNmXasVV4B3U

    217191 642212This is such a great post, and was thinking much the same myself. Another great update. 390075

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