When I released my first set of LPC Power Rankings in early February, I was a bit surprised to see Justin Trudeau up at 66%. These rankings aren’t intended to be a first ballot predictor, but they came pretty close to the mark in the NDP contest and it was still a bit of shock to see Trudeau 54 points above his nearest competitor. But wouldn’t you know it, Marc Garneau’s mystery poll was essentially spot on my numbers. So maybe there’s something to this.
And if there is, we are heading to an absolute rout.
|Justin Trudeau||$1,001,060||94%||60%||71,773||195,672||75% (+9)|
|Joyce Murray||$169,411||5%||13%||1,998||5,615||9% (+4)|
|Martha Hall Findlay||$178,590||1%||10%||8,571||7,819||7% (+1)|
|Martin Cauchon||$103,203||1%||7%||2,565||1,609||4% (+3)|
|Karen McCrimmon||$26,259||0%||6%||375||848||2% (+1)|
|Deborah Coyne||$27,385||0%||5%||479||2,155||2% (+1)|
You can see the methodology behind these rankings here. Since the last update, I’ve sweetened the recipe with ever-so-small weights for number of donors and Facebook “talking abouts”, but it doesn’t change the rankings.
The bracketed number on the final column reflects changes from the last update – you can consider it a “momentum” score of sorts, with everyone picking up some of the pieces from the Garneau, Takach, and Bertschi campaigns. Trudeau’s +9 score is nearly as much as the rest of the field combined, and he shows no signs of slowing down the stretch.
Nearly doubling her Power Score since the last update is Joyce Murray, who has raised an additional $100,000, picked up 1200 new Twitter followers and 800 likes, while earning an endorsement by Ted Hsu.
This sets up an interesting battle for second between Murray and Hall Findlay, but it appears to be a battle for a very, very distant second.