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Margin of Error
They were up late counting the votes in Brandon-Souris Monday night. That, despite the fact that the final poll of the campaign showed the Liberals with a commanding 29-point lead. In the end, the Liberal vote was 16 points lower and the Tory vote was 14 points higher. It would have been a shocking result, […]
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Today in meaningless polling
I really hate to post the results of a Forum poll. Especially for a by-election, where the stakes are low and turnout will be lower. But…wow. The fact that the Liberals are even in the game in a riding like Brandon is just stunning. No, they won’t win, but for a party which picked up […]
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Chickening Out On Change
We’ve been reminded this week that an 8-point lead in the dying days of an election campaign is about as safe as a 2-goal lead in the final 90 seconds of a playoff hockey game. Never take anything for granted. Despite leading by between 2 to 9 points in every poll fielded over the past […]
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Let’s Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves
Lorne Bozinoff, discussing Forum’s latest poll, explains what “should be clear by now”: “It’s clear by now that the Trudeau phenomenon is no one-day wonder, and that a Liberal Party led by him would be the prohibitive favourite to beat in the next federal election,” Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said. This likely makes […]
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Trudeau’s Poll Position
It’s no secret that Liberals love power above all else, so it’s hard for any Liberal to stay immune to Trudeaumania when you see headlines like “Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place, new poll shows” or “Trudeau could be Grits’ only hope, says pollster Graves“. I’ll admit that seeing a Trudeau-led Liberal Party […]
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Margin of Error
I don’t think I’ve ever followed an election where the polls were as horribly off the mark as they were in Alberta. Last May, when the media jumped on the “pollsters blew it” bandwagon for not projecting a Tory majority, most companies were still within the margin of error on the final vote intent numbers. […]