Wisdom of the Crowds: Races to Watch


At the call of the election, I asked Calgary Grit readers to answer 20 questions about the campaign. Here’s what those who entered had to say:

Will Elizabeth May win here seat?

One-in-five (21%) say she will. For what it’s worth, I think national Green support will drop this campaign, but I do think May will take her seat. She’s been working the riding for over a year, and most Liberal and NDP voters will rally behind her.

Will the Conservatives sweep Alberta?

Close to half (46%) say they will. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they only take 26 of 28. Linda Duncan holds in Edmonton Strathcona and Independent James Ford takes Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

Will Julian Fantino hold his seat?

Two-in-three (67%) think he will. A lot will depend on how the national campaign goes, but I’d bet on a hold if I had to.

Mulcair or Cauchon in Outremont?

Close to three-in-four (73%) pick Mulcair. Truth be told, I have a tough time predicting this one – it’s likely the best local race in the entire country, with two leadership aspirants for their respective parties duking it out. Gun to my head, I’d say Mulcair, but I could certainly be wrong. It has traditionally been a Liberal seat, and Cauchon was a well liked MP.

(For the mean seat total guesses, click here)


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