Leger, CROP, and Ipsos were all in field last week – if we take a weighted average based on their Quebec samples, we get the following:
Liberals 35%
Bloc 35%
CPC 14%
NDP 13%
Pas pire, no matter how you slice it, considering the Liberals have generally been about 15 points back of the Bloc in all three post-Chretien elections (although they did hit 34% in 2004).
I haven’t been able to see the regional tables at all, but the CROP poll does detail the collapse of Harper’s Quebec City Fortress:
Puis, les troupes de Stephen Harper ont glissé au troisième rang des intentions de vote dans leur bastion de la région de Québec, tout juste derrière le Bloc québécois et à 10 points du Parti libéral. À ce chapitre, le PLC termine au premier rang, avec 33%. C’est du jamais vu depuis janvier 2004, soit quelques semaines avant la publication du rapport dévastateur de la vérificatrice générale sur le scandale des commandites.
The Liberals haven’t won a seat in Quebec City since 2000, and finished third in every riding there last election – usually well over 10,000 votes behind. With little organization in the region, they’ll clearly have to put some resources into it – all the more evidence why it makes sense to have a 308 riding strategy, where you at least have a base level of organization in every riding that can be mobilized when things like this happen.
So what does this all mean electorally? Well, it’s too early to tell, but a real quick and dirty seat projection based on the 2008 results shows the Liberals poised to win between 20-30 seats in Quebec. And that’s just the way the Quebec map usually plays out – in the 1997 election for instance, the Bloc edged the Liberals 38% to 37%, but beat them on seats 44 to 26.
