For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections

The polls have taken a turn for the worse for the Liberals, and my projections now show Harper with a 52.3% chance of a majority…and that’s mainly due to older sample that hasn’t completely decayed in weight yet. As always though, things can change a lot between now and election day.

From a methodology perspective, I’m hoping to see a few more regional breakdowns on some of these polls so that some of the Montreal/Toronto dynamics can be better taken into account.