For a full description of methodology used, please see: Week 1 Projections
With three companies running daily tracking polls, there’s a lot more data available, which has decreased some of the variance in my projection model.
I’ve also tweaked the system slightly by weighting the Ekos polls less – with the demon dialing, the’re getting much larger samples than the other companies and were dominating the model.
No other changes in methodology from last week, so without further adieu, here is where things sit. Again, as a disclaimer, these results are only as good as the publicly released polls and makes no effort to project where things will be at on October 14th.
