Unless you’re a hockey fan, it figures to be a pretty slow news weekend. So I thought it might be a good time for a little election speculation. However, it certainly seems to me that there’s a speculatory imbalance with all the hype being on the federal vote, so I figured I’d take a looksy at some of the provincial elections coming up this year. I’m certainly not an expert in the intricacies of Newfoundland or Manitoban politics, so this is more of an open thread for those closer to the action to give their two cents on the local scene.
Ontario
October 10th, 2007 will be voting day as Dalton McGuinty guns for a second term against the tory Tory. The latest SES numbers have the Liberals ahead, although not at their 2003 numbers quite yet:
Lib 41
PC 33
NDP 17
Despite the early flack for broken promises, I’d be surprised to see McGuinty lose this one.
Newfoundland & Labrador
King Williams seems to be the safest Premier in Canada these days, with opinions polls showing him miles ahead of an opposition in disarray. Despite a recent by election win by the Liberals, this should be another walk in the park for Danny as he runs on his anti-Ottawa platform.
It’s weird – politicians who are adored outside of their home provinces like Bernard Lord and Jean Charest are usually reviled at home, while those who turn into punch lines like Danny Williams and Ralph Klein are the ones who cruise to record majorities.
Saskatchewan
Lorne Calvert will certainly be tempted to take a page from Premier Williams and wage war on Ottawa during the next campaign. Despite an economic boom, after 16 years in power, voters seem to be tiring of NDP government and the Sask Party (slogan: “Just like the old PCs, minus the kick backs!”) has routinely been ahead in the polls over the past year. They are led by Brad Wall who I doubt anyone outside of Saskatchewan has ever heard of.
Manitoba
You probably want to check out Hack’s blog for the low down on Manitoba politics, but it certainly sounds like the opposition are poised to knock off Gary Doer here.
PEI
Pat Binns is the Premier. Above and beyond that, I really don’t have anything insightful to say about the state of PEI politics. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
UPDATE: OK, here’s some news on PEI.
Alberta
My money is on 2008 for the next election but it could be joining the 007 club if Ed Stelmach decides he wants to get his own mandate. It has been 36 years since the last government change here so, even by Alberta standards, we are due. The Liberals have their sights set on a Calgary breakthrough as the former farmer Stelmach is seen to be anti-Calgary in many circles (those circles usually comprising of Jim Dinning supporters). But with an electoral map which favours rural Alberta dramatically, it would take one heck of a stumble for the Tories to fall out of power.