Polls

Shockingly, the Iqaluit typo hasn’t proven to be a game changer for the Liberals

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Ipsos shows the biggest Tory lead since the coalition days:

CPC 39%
Lib 28%
NDP 14%
Green 10%
BQ 7%

It bears noting that every other poll published over the past month has had the parties neckandneck.

June Poll Soup

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Well, after months of consistent gains, the Liberal momentum stalled in June, with their mean lead on the Tories down to 2 points.

Ekos (June 25-29, n = 2262 demon dialed)

Lib 32.2%
CPC 31.0%
NDP 16.2%
Green 11.5%
BQ 9.0%

Nanos (June 17-21, n = 781 telephone)

Lib 36.3%
CPC 32.2%
NDP 16.8%
BQ 9.8%
Green 4.8%

Angus Reid (June 17-18, n = 1005 online)

CPC 32%
Lib 31%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Green 7%

Ipsos (released June 20, n = 1000 telephone)

Lib 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 13%
BQ 10%
Green 8%

Harris-Decima (May 28-June 8, n = 2000 telephone)

Lib 35%
CPC 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

OVERALL (change since May in brackets)

Lib 33.9% (-0.6%)
CPC 32.0% (+0.2%)
NDP 15.8% (+0.8%)
BQ 9.8% (+0.8%)
Green 7.9% (-1.9%)

ALSO…

-This CROP poll is spun as the end of the Ignatieff honeymoon in Quebec, but an 8 point gain vis-a-vis the Bloc isn’t a bad way to end the honeymoon in my humble opinion. (And Leger has the Grits and BQ tied)

-There’s a new site for polling info – threehundredeight.com (wherever did they get that name idea, eh?). There’s nothing super high level as of yet, but it seems to be doing a good job posting poll results, and they do have a funky graph on pollster biases.

-Speaking of which, there’s some interesting back and forth between Paulitics and Ipsos Senior VP John Wright.

-The usual Canada Day poll is out. In addition to the standard (“we love our country”, “we’re different from the US”, yada yada yada), there’s majority support for ditching the Monarchy – something I’d be completely onside with.

Your May Poll Soup

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Even though May’s a good month for horse racing, there haven’t been a lot of horse race polls out lately (well, outside of Quebec anyways).

Ipsos Reid (May 20-24, n = 1000)
Lib 33%
CPC 35%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (May 6-10, n = 1500)
Lib 35%
CPC 30%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Decima (April 23 to May 3, n = 1000)
Lib 34%
CPC 29%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Nanos (April 25 to April 30, n = 1000)
Lib 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 7%

MEAN (change since April in brackets)
Lib 34.5% (+0.5%)
CPC 31.8% (no change)
NDP 15.0% (-0.2%)
BQ 9.0% (-0.4%)
Green 9.8% (+1.8%)


With only one of these polls coming after the attack ads aired, it’s still too early to judge their effectiveness. In Quebec, there appears to have been a marginally negative effect on impressions of Ignatieff, but no real erosion in his support levels. According to Decima, the ads soured opinions of Ignatieff for 30% of Canadians, and made 50% of voters think less of Harper. Which is swell, until you consider that the “not a leader ads”, now considered to have destroyed Dion, were judged to be unfair and irrelevant by most Canadians polled on the subject.

So, we’ll have to wait for the next few rounds of polling updates, before we can really judge their impact.

ALSO…

Ontario: Ipsos has McGuinty up 46% to 31% on the leader-less PCs, with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) failing to make much of a dent. But cheer up opposition, Nanos has Ontarians against the HST by a 67% to 23% margin.

Nova Scotia: CRA has the NDP at 37%, the Liberals at 31%, and the incumbent Tories at 28% – but an “issues” poll does show the Liberals as the most trusted on the economy.

National: Strategic Counsel has an interesting poll out, comparing the Ignatieff and Harper on a host of issues and characteristics.

UPDATE: New numbers from ARS…and Ekos. Obviously should have waited a day for the update.

UPDATE – 2: Interesting results from Angus Reid:

After disclosing their voting intention, respondents to this survey were divided into three groups. The first group observed one of the television ads that the Conservative Party has launched targeting Ignatieff, the second group was shown the same ad and the response that Ignatieff posted on YouTube, and the third group was not exposed to any ads or videos.

The momentum score for Harper among respondents who saw the ad is -40 (10% improved, 50% worsened), and the prime minister posts similar numbers among those who saw the ad and the video (9% improved, 52% worsened) and those who were not exposed directly to either the ad or the video (7% improved, 49% worsened).

The momentum score for Ignatieff among respondents who saw the ad is -18 (24% improved, 42% worsened). However, the opposition leader bridges the gap with those who also saw his YouTube video (29% improved, 31% worsened) and is even among those who did not see the ad or the video (28% improved, 28% worsened).

Sondage Says…

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It’s been a busy week for political polls…I’ll have the May poll dance up by week’s end, but with two Quebec-only polls in field at the same time, this is a good chance to take a close look at a province which is all too often overlooked by both pundits and politicians – Quebec.

Leger, CROP, and Ipsos were all in field last week – if we take a weighted average based on their Quebec samples, we get the following:

Liberals 35%
Bloc 35%
CPC 14%
NDP 13%

Pas pire, no matter how you slice it, considering the Liberals have generally been about 15 points back of the Bloc in all three post-Chretien elections (although they did hit 34% in 2004).

I haven’t been able to see the regional tables at all, but the CROP poll does detail the collapse of Harper’s Quebec City Fortress:

Puis, les troupes de Stephen Harper ont glissé au troisième rang des intentions de vote dans leur bastion de la région de Québec, tout juste derrière le Bloc québécois et à 10 points du Parti libéral. À ce chapitre, le PLC termine au premier rang, avec 33%. C’est du jamais vu depuis janvier 2004, soit quelques semaines avant la publication du rapport dévastateur de la vérificatrice générale sur le scandale des commandites.

The Liberals haven’t won a seat in Quebec City since 2000, and finished third in every riding there last election – usually well over 10,000 votes behind. With little organization in the region, they’ll clearly have to put some resources into it – all the more evidence why it makes sense to have a 308 riding strategy, where you at least have a base level of organization in every riding that can be mobilized when things like this happen.

So what does this all mean electorally? Well, it’s too early to tell, but a real quick and dirty seat projection based on the 2008 results shows the Liberals poised to win between 20-30 seats in Quebec. And that’s just the way the Quebec map usually plays out – in the 1997 election for instance, the Bloc edged the Liberals 38% to 37%, but beat them on seats 44 to 26.

So while these gains are nice, they also show the 66-seat gap won’t be closed in Quebec alone. Even in the best-case Quebec scenario, the Liberals will need to flip at least 20-25 seats elsewhere, in order to get back to government. (certainly doable, given stories like this)

April Poll Dance

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After some insignificant shifts in March, the Liberals have overtaken the Tories in April:

Angus Reid (April 21-22, n = 1000 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 33%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 6%

Harris Decima (April 8-19, n = 2000)
CPC 29%
Lib 32%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 11%

Ekos (April 8-15, n = 1500 phone/online)
CPC 30%
Lib 37%
NDP 16%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Strategic Counsel (April 2-5, n = 1000)
CPC 32%
Lib 34%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 9%

Leger (March 18-23, n = 1500)
Lib 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 14%
BQ 9%
Green 6%

MEAN (change since March in brackets)
CPC 31.8 (-2.6%)
Lib 34.0% (+1.2%)
NDP 15.2% (+1.0%)
BQ 9.4% (-0.2%)
Green 8.0% (-0.6%)

Also:

-In Manitoba, the NDP have a 10 point lead on the PCs.

-In BC, STV doesn’t look to be quite as sure a bet to pass as previously thought according to this Ipsos poll.

March Poll Dance

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Here’s what Canadians have been telling pollsters this March:

Nanos (March 13-18, n=1,000)
Lib 36%
CPC 33%
NDP 13%
BQ 10%
Green 8%

Angus Reid (March 10-11, n=1,000 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 31%
NDP 16%
BQ 10%
Green 7%

Strategic Counsel (March 5-8, n=1,000)
CPC 35%
Lib 31%
NDP 16%
Green 10%
BQ 9%

Decima (Feb 26-March 8, n=2,000)
Lib 33%
CPC 32%
NDP 14%
Green 10%
BQ 9%

Ipsos (Feb 24-March 5, n=1,000)
CPC 37%
Lib 33%
NDP 12%
BQ 10%
Green 8%

MEAN (change since February in brackets)
CPC 34.4% (+0.4%)
Lib 32.8% (+0.8%)
NDP 14.2% (-1.3%)
BQ 9.6% (+0.8%)
Green 8.6% (-0.7%)

February Poll Dance

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I probably should have updated this earlier in the month – these numbers may be a bit stale by now. But, regardless, here’s what Canadians have been telling pollsters this February:

Nanos (Jan 30 to Feb 3, n=1000)
CPC 34%
Lib 33%
NDP 16%
BQ 10%
GP 7%

Strategic Counsel (Feb 5 to 8, n=1000)
CPC 32%
Lib 33%
NDP 17%
BQ 5%
GP 13%

Ipsos (Feb 3 to 5, n=1000)
CPC 37%
Lib 31%
NDP 14%
BQ 10%
GP 7%

Decima (Feb 5 to 8, n=1000)
CPC 33%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
GP 10%

MEAN (change since January in brackets)
CPC 34% (-2.75%)
Lib 32% (+1.5%)
NDP 15.5% (-1.75%)
BQ 8.75% (nc)
GP 9.25% (+2.75%)

A Green Wave Sweeps Across Quebec

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The latest Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe poll raises some interesting questions – the most prominent being “why was this poll released?”. Here are the not-at-all-surprising Quebec splits:

Greens 26%
Liberals 24%
Bloc 22%
CPC 17%
NDP 12%

Now, if we take these numbers at face value (ha ha…well, at least play along), there is only one conclusion to be reached: Quebecers, after flirting with Harper, Layton, and Ignatieff, have now fallen head over heels for Elizabeth May.

Therefore, in the interests of helping the Liberal Party out in Quebec, I have taken the liberty of drafting some attack lines, which could easily be turned into LPC commercials. If we act now, we may be able to stave off this Green menace!

Le Parti Vert – sérieusement?

Elizabeth May: Closet Bruins fan

A vote for the Greens is a vote for the tax-on-everything

Elizabeth May: Fraude

I hate anyone who’s ever owned a pony. Don’t you?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who rides a tricycle?

Elizabeth May: Can you really trust someone who liked Stephane Dion as much as she did?

Because caring about the environment is, like, so 2007

Hat Tip – FaW

Pro-Prorogue Polls

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Sure, sure, we could argue over the proper spelling of “precedent” all night long but I know what you’re all itching for – polling data!

Angus Reid
47% believe GG should prorogue
37% believe she should let coalition take power


More people
watched Harper speak than Dion speak last night but, judging from what they thought of both speeches, that’s a good thing for Dion.

44% believe the Conservative minority has the moral authority to govern
31% believe the Liberal-NDP coalition has the moral authority to govern

Ipsos Reid
Pro-prorogue 68%
Coalition 29%

Election 56%
Prorogue 38%

CPC 46% Lib 23% NDP 13% BQ 9% Green 8%

Ekos
We need a break 37%
Coalition time 28%
Election 19%

Harper government best to deal with economic crisis 47%
Dion coalition best to deal with economic crisis 34%

CPC 44% Lib 24% NDP 15% BQ 9% Green 8%

UPDATE: The Strategic Counsel mirrors these results. The country may be divided but, for once, the pollsters are not.

For those suffering post-election poll withdrawal symptoms

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Au Quebec:

Liberals 41%
PQ 35%
ADQ 14%

It’s difficult to know what to make of this without having Nate Silver explain it to me – the real question here is what the ADQ collapse means to the other parties. Last election saw the popular vote translate into seats in a fairly representative fashion, but in the preADQ world the electoral map always heavily favoured the PQ.

The best case of that is 1998, when the Liberals got 44%, the PQ 43%, and the ADQ 12%, but we ended up with a 76-48-1 PQ-Lib-ADQ seat split. Now, I hate bringing this up because the PR folks are going to go bonkers, but if the ADQ vote stays depressed, I think the possibility of a PQ win is very real if they can get themselves to within 3% or so of Charest in the polls. And the prospect of a Charest majority would seem to be slim, unless he can stretch his lead out into double digits.

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