Category: 2011 Federal Election

  • Ridings to Watch – Quebec

    I’ve already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. Now, a look at Quebec. At the start of the campaign, the pundits confidently predicted there would be no surprises in Quebec. Well…surprise! The NDP vote has tripled, and there are probably over 50 ridings in play tomorrow. I’m not going to […]

  • Ridings to Watch – Atlantic Canada

    I’ve already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, and the Prairies. Today, a look at some of the ridings in Atlantic Canada to watch on election night. With small poll sample sizes in the Atlantic Provinces, it’s hard to get a sense of what will happen on election night. Moreover, Atlantic provinces don’t always follow […]

  • Your Daily Seat Projections

    My final projections will be posted tomorrow, but we’ve already got the final numbers from Leger, Ipsos, and Angus. Here’s the running average: CPC: 36.5% (+0.4)NDP: 30.4% (+2.7)Lib: 20.8% (-1.9)Bloc: 6.6% (-)Green: 4.7% (-0.9) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling margins of error, how shifts […]

  • Ad Watch: Compare and Contrast

    The Liberals release their final two ads of the election – one targeting the Tories, one targeting the NDP. How would you rate this ad? A B C D F See Results How would you rate this poll? A B C D F See Results You can rate other campaign ads here, here, here, here, […]

  • Angry Bairds

    This is just too funny.

  • This is sure to end well

    If you think this all ends on May 2nd, think again: Harper mum on post-election governing scenario Stephen Harper is refusing to say whether he would accept a decision by the Governor General to hand power to the opposition parties in wake of the May 2 election. Conservative supporters booed a CBC journalist at a […]

  • The 2011 Wet Tissue Election

    Sadly, this is all people will be talking about over the final 3 days of the campaign: TORONTO – Jack Layton was found laying naked on a bed by Toronto Police at a suspected Chinatown bawdy house in 1996, a retired Toronto police officer told the Toronto Sun. The stunning revelation about the current leader […]

  • Ridings to Watch – BC

    After a look at Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta, we head West, to the always interesting world of BC politics. I don’t have a lot of on-the-ground intel, so check out Pundits Guide for a great qualitative look at the ridings. I’ll provide a brief overview here, using data from my seat projections but, by all […]

  • Your Daily Seat Projections

    The big update will wait until the final round of polls come in this weekend but, for now, the latest from Nanos, Ekos, and Decima have been added. CPC: 36.1% (-0.2)NDP: 27.7% (+1.1)Lib: 22.7% (-1.1)Bloc: 6.6% (-0.3)Green: 5.6% (+0.1) As a reminder, the following projections are based on 10,000 simulations, taking into account the polling […]

  • No Win Situation

    A preview of the problems that might await the Liberals if Layton surges over 100 seats. CdnPolitico @stphnmaher Works for me. As a Blue Lib I would not agree to ever support an NDP-led govt. Ever. torontodan @stphnmaher If Libs prop up Harper, 80% of those who are left will leave the party forever. Myself […]

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