On Top

Yes, we all had a good snicker at last week’s Decima poll which showed the Liberals 11 points up in Ontario. But lo and behold, a double dose of polls last night, both showing Dalton McGuinty back on top:

Nanos (Sep 10-11, n = 507 phone)

Lib 38%
PC 35%
NDP 24%
Green 3%

Ipsos (Sep 7-11, n = 800 phone)

Lib 38%
PC 37%
NDP 24%
Green 1%

Sure, we’re only in the third inning, but this is encouraging for the Liberals for reasons beyond the obvious. It will energize the ground troops and, most importantly, will shift the media narrative in McGuinty’s favour. No doubt, had the polls shown Liberals losing ground, we’d have seen stories about a Liberal campaign in turmoil over its controversial immigrant tax credit proposal. Instead, it’s Hudak who will likely be on the hot seat.

We shouldn‘t let polls dictate the narrative, but it’s foolish to think they don’t. For a party down 10 points earlier this year, this buys McGuinty a few days of positive coverage.

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Ontario Election, Polls

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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