August Poll Soup: Dog Days of August Edition

I try not to get too worked up over summertime polls. Canadians aren’t thinking about politics, and even a barrage of Census news stories isn’t going to change their vote intent much. At least not right away.

After all, people are at their cottages and drinking lemonade. They have better things to do than talk to pollsters.

So there was really no need to panic when Ekos’ Canada Day weekend poll showed the Liberals at 23.9%. And the Tories probably don’t need to lose much sleep over an August long weekend poll which had them below 30%.

Still, with a barrage of polls released over the past week, there’s no harm in posting a poll soup update.

Ekos (July 21 – Aug 3, n = 3,444 auto dialled)
CPC 31.6%
Lib 26.8%
NDP 17.3%
BQ 10.4%
Green 11.0%
Other 2.9%

Angus Reid (Aug 10-11, n = 1,009 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 29%
NDP 19%
BQ 10%
Green 9%

Decima (July 29 – Aug 9, n = 2,009 phone)
CPC 34%
Lib 28%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 12%

Ipsos (Aug 4-9, n = 1,000)
CPC 34%
Lib 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 9%

AVERAGE (change since June in brackets)
CPC: 33.0% (-1.6%)
Lib: 28.5% (+0.6%)
NDP: 16.5% (-1.1%)
BQ: 9.8% (+0.3%)
Green: 10.4% (+1.7%)

NOTE: The overall numbers are weighted based on sample size and pollster accuracy, using the weights I devised for my seat projections. I’ll update the seat projections in September since, as I said, there’s no point getting too worked up over August horse race numbers.

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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