Poll Soup: School’s out for the Summer Edition


What has been described as “the least productive session of parliament ever” is stumbling to a close. Looking at what little has been accomplished…well, maybe they should have just stayed prorogued.

But even if there’s been little legislative movement in the House, there has been movement in the polls since January. Despite abortion gaffes, a Jaffer side show, and a billion dollar boondogle, the Tories managed to regain much of what they lost from the grassroots fury over the holidays. A 1.7% lead in January has gradually widened to 6.7%.

And, you know what. That’s basically the mean Canadian politics has kept regressing to over the last 4 years. Sure, sometimes the Tories inch ahead and we speculate about a majority. Sometimes the Liberals creep up and we start speculating about a Liberal win. But, without fail, two or three months later, we get back to the 6 or 7 point lead.

Ekos (June 9 – 15, n = 2,013 robo called)
CPC 30.5%
Lib 26.3%
NDP 17.4%
BQ 10.5%
Green 12.3%
Other 3.0%

Nanos (May 29 – June 3, n = 1,008 phone)
CPC 35.6%
Lib 29.2%
NDP 20.7%
BQ 9.4%
Green 5.1%

Environics (May 18 – 26, n = 2,064 phone)
CPC 36%
Lib 30%
NDP 15%
BQ 10%
Green 7%
Other 2%

Angus Reid (May 25 – 27, n = 2,022 online)
CPC 35%
Lib 27%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
Green 8%

Decima (May 13 – 23, n = 2,010 phone)
CPC 36%
Lib 27%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
Green 11%

AVERAGE (change since April in brackets)
CPC: 34.6% (+1.3%)
Lib: 27.9% (+0.8%)
NDP: 17.6% (-0.9%)
BQ: 9.4% (-0.5%)
Green: 8.7% (-0.9%)

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Polls

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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