Election Day in Ohio

Who will win? “Not Obama” or “Not Romney”?

While I may not be as overdosed on hope and change as I was four years ago, I’ll be rooting for Barack Obama tonight. I could write a lengthy treatise comparing policy positions and promises, but the short of it is I like the guy and I think he’d make a better President than Mitt Romney. I suspect that’s what it boils down to for most voters, so I’ll leave the deep analysis to those who follow US politics more closely.

Intrade has Obama with a 73.5% chance of winning tonight, and I’d still place my bet on the President with those odds. Nate Silver has Obama at a 90.9% chance of re-election, and recent polls have shown momentum swinging in Obama’s favour – likely, but not necessarily, because of his perceived strong response to Hurricane Sandy.

In the end though, the result may have little to do with gaffes, attack ads, debate performances, or even acts of God. Distilling this election down to its simplest terms, the economy isn’t great but it shows signs of life and Obama, despite a disappointing term in office, is still a better politician than Mitt Romney. Sometimes it’s best not to overthink these things.

Consider this an open thread to discuss the results as they roll in.

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2012 US Election, US Politics

About CalgaryGrit

A former Calgary Liberal, now living in Toronto. My writings on politics can be found at www.calgarygrit.ca and online at the National Post.

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8 Responses to Election Day in Ohio

  1. Mark

    The election result won’t be about whether the momentum has swung in favour of Obama, it will be about whether Obama has a big enough margin in a handful of swing states to overcome Republican cheating.

    The combination of America’s archaic electoral college system, with the Republican’s well-established practice of cheating, could still give this election to Romney.

  2. Mark

    They’re not even being subtle about it this year…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM

  3. Michael Harkov

    The election result won’t be about whether the momentum has swung in favour of Romney after the 1st debate, it will be about whether Romney can catch up in a handful of swing states to overcome Democrat cheating.

    The combination of America’s archaic electoral college system, with the Democrats’s well-established practice of cheating, could still give this election to Obama.

    http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/06/judge-orders-reinstatement-of-booted-election-officials-in-philly-gop-says/

  4. Michael Harkov

    ^^^ And they are not even being subtle about it this year.

  5. hosertohoosier

    Obama will win – it’ll nearly be a reverse of the 2004 election, with the Democrats winning safely, but by a small margin.

    Like Bush in 2004, Obama will have little more to do, and a weak mandate (plus the GOP will probably hold onto the house, though not the Senate because they managed to nominate some real morons). Don’t expect much to get done over the next 4 years.

  6. Jason Holborn

    I too felt far less enthusiasm than 2008, yet still ended up pulling for Obama.

    I was by no means afraid of Romney, yet I was mighty glad to see Obama re-elected.

    I didn’t check any results till I woke up this morning. I told a few people who hadn’t heard yet and it made their mornings.

    I don’t think Romney is all that bad, his time in office seems alright. He seemed hampered by extremist party elements more than anything else.

  7. Johnb303

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