{"id":4976,"date":"2013-04-10T08:30:36","date_gmt":"2013-04-10T12:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4976"},"modified":"2013-04-10T11:01:37","modified_gmt":"2013-04-10T15:01:37","slug":"final-power-rankings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4976","title":{"rendered":"Final Power Rankings"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Trudeau<\/a><\/p>\n

There isn’t a lot of suspense surrounding Sunday’s Liberal leadership vote. Pick the metric of your choice – fundraising, endorsements, hair volume <\/em>– and Trudeau leads his nearest challenger by at least a 4:1 ratio. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in Twitter support, but Justin has 10 times <\/em>more followers than the rest of the field combined<\/em>. <\/p>\n

The following table provides an overview of what little quantitative data we have on the race and offers a Power Rank, based on how these variables have translated to votes in past contests (methodology here<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nFundraising<\/strong><\/td>\nEndorsement<\/strong><\/td>\nMedia<\/strong><\/td>\nFacebook<\/strong><\/td>\nTwitter<\/strong><\/td>\nPower Rank<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Justin Trudeau<\/strong><\/td>\n$1,078,866<\/td>\n90%<\/td>\n77%<\/td>\n73,992<\/td>\n199,394<\/td>\n78% (+3)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Joyce Murray<\/strong><\/td>\n$225,310<\/td>\n8%<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n2,147<\/td>\n5,848<\/td>\n9% (–)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martha Hall Findlay<\/strong><\/td>\n$192,280<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n8,563<\/td>\n7,923<\/td>\n6% (-1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martin Cauchon<\/strong><\/td>\n$148,739<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n4%<\/td>\n2,612<\/td>\n1,655<\/td>\n4% (–)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Karen McCrimmon<\/strong><\/td>\n$36,222<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n3%<\/td>\n387<\/td>\n901<\/td>\n1.7% (–)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deborah Coyne<\/strong><\/td>\n$31,651<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n501<\/td>\n2,199<\/td>\n1.5% (-1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n


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The bracketed number on the final column reflects changes from the last update<\/a> – you can consider it a “momentum” score of sorts. Although that number shows Trudeau gaining ground, that’s completely a by-product of increased media attention – his share of the fundraising pie has actually dipped from 66% to 63%, with Joyce Murray and Martin Cauchon finishing strong on that front.<\/p>\n

As I’ve stressed before, this isn’t a first ballot prediction, though it seems like as good a guess as any. I’d personally bet the “under” on 78% for Trudeau, but I do think he’s heading for a clear majority – and not just a “clear majority” by NDP standards<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the end, whether Trudeau nabs 78%, or 63%, or the 112% some seem to be expecting, is irrelevant. Paul Martin received 94% of the vote and Michael Ignatieff got every<\/em> vote, but both inherited deeply divided parties. While I have no doubt there will still be gripping from anonymous Liberals in the years to come, Team Trudeau has smartly run a positive and mostly unantagonistic campaign, that should leave Justin with relatively few enemies within the party. <\/p>\n

That Trudeau exits this race untarnished <\/em>and that the party exits this race united <\/em>are far more important than whatever number is announced on Sunday.
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What percentage of the weighted vote will Justin Trudeau get on the first ballot?<\/b><\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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<\/code><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There isn’t a lot of suspense surrounding Sunday’s Liberal leadership vote. Pick the metric of your choice – fundraising, endorsements, hair volume – and Trudeau leads his nearest challenger by at least a 4:1 ratio. I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in Twitter support, but Justin has 10 times more followers than the rest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1102,579],"tags":[1199,1013,1000,1302,1003,1007],"class_list":["post-4976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2013-lpc-leadership-race","category-fun-with-numb3rs","tag-deborah-coyne","tag-joyce-murray","tag-justin-trudeau","tag-karen-mccrimmon","tag-martha-hall-findlay","tag-martin-cauchon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4976"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4976\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5022,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4976\/revisions\/5022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}