{"id":4906,"date":"2013-03-26T09:00:13","date_gmt":"2013-03-26T13:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4906"},"modified":"2013-03-25T21:17:42","modified_gmt":"2013-03-26T01:17:42","slug":"updated-power-rankings-show-trudeau-in-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4906","title":{"rendered":"Updated Power Rankings Show Trudeau in Control"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Karen<\/a>
Karen McCrimmon recognizes the odds she’s facing<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

When I released my first set of LPC Power Rankings<\/a> in early February, I was a bit surprised to see Justin Trudeau up at 66%. These rankings aren’t intended to be a first ballot predictor, but they came pretty close to the mark in the NDP contest<\/a> and it was still a bit of shock to see Trudeau 54 points above his nearest competitor. But wouldn’t you know it, Marc Garneau’s mystery poll was essentially spot on my numbers<\/a>. So maybe there’s something to this.<\/p>\n

And if <\/em>there is, we are heading to an absolute rout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nFundraising<\/strong><\/td>\nEndorsement<\/strong><\/td>\nMedia<\/strong><\/td>\nFacebook<\/strong><\/td>\nTwitter<\/strong><\/td>\nPower Rank<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Justin Trudeau<\/strong><\/td>\n $1,001,060<\/td>\n94%<\/td>\n60%<\/td>\n71,773<\/td>\n195,672<\/td>\n75% (+9)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Joyce Murray<\/strong><\/td>\n $169,411<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n13%<\/td>\n1,998<\/td>\n5,615<\/td>\n9% (+4)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martha Hall Findlay<\/strong><\/td>\n $178,590<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n10%<\/td>\n8,571<\/td>\n7,819<\/td>\n7% (+1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Martin Cauchon<\/strong><\/td>\n $103,203<\/td>\n1%<\/td>\n7%<\/td>\n2,565<\/td>\n1,609<\/td>\n4% (+3)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Karen McCrimmon<\/strong><\/td>\n$26,259<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n6%<\/td>\n375<\/td>\n848<\/td>\n2% (+1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deborah Coyne<\/strong><\/td>\n $27,385<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n5%<\/td>\n479<\/td>\n2,155<\/td>\n2% (+1)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n


<\/code><\/p>\n

You can see the methodology behind these rankings here<\/a>. Since the last update, I’ve sweetened the recipe with ever-so-small weights for number of donors and Facebook “talking abouts”, but it doesn’t change the rankings.<\/p>\n

The bracketed number on the final column reflects changes from the last update – you can consider it a “momentum” score of sorts, with everyone picking up some of the pieces from the Garneau, Takach, and Bertschi campaigns. Trudeau’s +9 score is nearly as much as the rest of the field combined, and he shows no signs of slowing down the stretch. <\/p>\n

Nearly doubling her Power Score since the last update is Joyce Murray, who has raised an additional $100,000, picked up 1200 new Twitter followers and 800 likes, while earning an endorsement by Ted Hsu<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This sets up an interesting battle for second between Murray and Hall Findlay, but it appears to be a battle for a very, very <\/em>distant second.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When I released my first set of LPC Power Rankings in early February, I was a bit surprised to see Justin Trudeau up at 66%. These rankings aren’t intended to be a first ballot predictor, but they came pretty close to the mark in the NDP contest and it was still a bit of shock […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1102,983,579],"tags":[1199,1013,1000,1302,1003,1007],"class_list":["post-4906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2013-lpc-leadership-race","category-federal-politics","category-fun-with-numb3rs","tag-deborah-coyne","tag-joyce-murray","tag-justin-trudeau","tag-karen-mccrimmon","tag-martha-hall-findlay","tag-martin-cauchon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4906"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4906\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4919,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4906\/revisions\/4919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}