{"id":4060,"date":"2012-09-11T16:02:06","date_gmt":"2012-09-11T20:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4060"},"modified":"2012-09-11T16:02:06","modified_gmt":"2012-09-11T20:02:06","slug":"charests-loss-may-be-harpers-gain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=4060","title":{"rendered":"Charest’s Loss May Be Harper’s Gain"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It was hard for Harper to say no to “the most federalist Premier in my lifetime”…and the one man who laughed at his jokes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Although the federal leaders executed Cirque Du Soleil worthy backflips to stay out of the Quebec election, the repercussions of this vote<\/a> will be far reaching. Having a separatist attack dog in Quebec City – even one on a minority government leash – undeniably changes the dynamic in Ottawa.<\/p>\n

So who benefits?<\/p>\n


<\/code><\/p>\n

The Liberals<\/strong><\/p>\n

Traditionally, Canadians have tended to trust the Liberal Party on the national unity file, and this is an area where the Trudeau<\/em> brand remains strong. While I’m sure Justin doesn’t want to become a shadow of his father, people will listen when he speaks out about national unity, so it’s an issue he could use to define himself. <\/p>\n

Assuming of course, he manages to win the leadership. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves<\/a>. But at the very least, another Liberal leader could still press the issue by sending Trudeau before the cameras or having Stephane Dion write an open letter to Pauline Marois. Hell, I think we know Stephane will be doing that, regardless of whatever the next Liberal leader wants<\/em>.<\/p>\n

And yes, no one seriously expects there to be a referendum call during Marois’ term as Premier. But what if she tries to forge ahead with some of her controversial religious and linguistic policies? That sounds to me like a great opportunity for a party looking to reclaim its position as the defender of minority rights to take a firm stand – even if it means alienating a few xenophobic pequistes.<\/p>\n


<\/code><\/p>\n

The Conservatives<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was a time when Stephen Harper would shower Jean Charest with compliments at every press conference, but the love has faded from their relationship in recent years. Indeed, it’s not hard to imagine Stephen Harper secretly rooting for a PQ victory last week. A Marois minority was likely his best-case outcome, politically speaking.<\/p>\n

After all, it’s not like Stephen Harper has made a name for himself building consensus between the federal government and the provinces. For a man who is rarely seen smiling with the Premiers, a good enemy is more valuable than a shaky ally. And what a foil Marois is! This isn’t a “charming separatist” in the mould of Lucien Bouchard or Gilles Duceppe – outside Quebec, she is seen as destructive, closed-minded, and hateful. It’s a lot easier to say “non” to Pauline Marois than to “Captain Canada”, Jean Charest. <\/p>\n

Conflict with a PQ government is inevitable, and Harper can score points outside Quebec by standing up to Marois. However, unlike Trudeau or Chretien, the threat of a referendum does not hang over Harper’s head, minimizing the risk of a tough position. <\/p>\n

And it’s not like Harper has a lot to lose. Unlike…<\/p>\n


<\/code><\/p>\n

The NDP<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thomas Mulcair is in a delicate position. Many of the people who elected his Quebec MPs justed voted in Pauline Marois – but the people who elected his other <\/em>MPs are not fans of hers. Don’t expect Mulcair to be rushing to the microphones the next time Marois says something controversial.<\/p>\n

Further muddying the waters are Mulcair’s musings about starting a provincial NDP in Quebec<\/a>. While this might help the NDP organizationally, it could box them into positions they’d rather not take. It’s one thing to go by Thomas <\/em>in Quebec and Tom <\/em>elsewhere – on policy, Mulcair is going to get burned on any inconsistencies.<\/p>\n

The Liberals rightly recognize that national unity is an area where they can score points vis-a-vis the Dippers. They’ve already tried to smoke the NDP out by musing about a motion re-affirming support for the Clarity Act<\/a>. Expect more of that as Marois pushes national unity front and centre. The NDP may have gotten a free ride on the Sherbrooke Declaration when Jean Charest was Premier and they were the third party in the house, but the level of scrutiny will be higher for a government-in-waiting, with the separatists in power.<\/p>\n

Mulcair is going to have to defend positions that may not be popular in the rest of Canada. Bonne chance!<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although the federal leaders executed Cirque Du Soleil worthy backflips to stay out of the Quebec election, the repercussions of this vote will be far reaching. Having a separatist attack dog in Quebec City – even one on a minority government leash – undeniably changes the dynamic in Ottawa. So who benefits? The Liberals Traditionally, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[983,86],"tags":[1226,1097,1000,1228,1094,991,979],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4060"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4060"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4060\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4072,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4060\/revisions\/4072"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}