{"id":3279,"date":"2012-04-05T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-05T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=3279"},"modified":"2012-05-29T13:29:16","modified_gmt":"2012-05-29T17:29:16","slug":"alberta-votes-day-11-a-wild-wave-sweeps-across-alberta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=3279","title":{"rendered":"Alberta Votes Day 11: A Wild Wave Sweeps Across Alberta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-WFM944_ZbU4\/T3z83x1U9lI\/AAAAAAAADDg\/KCihsbif09w\/s1600\/smith%2Bpeters.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; width: 320px; height: 205px; text-align: center; display: block; cursor: pointer;\" id=\"BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5727730861308442194\" border=\"0\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-WFM944_ZbU4\/T3z83x1U9lI\/AAAAAAAADDg\/KCihsbif09w\/s320\/smith%2Bpeters.jpg\" \/><\/a><br \/>Dear Wildrose Party candidates,<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calgaryherald.com\/news\/Wildrose%2Bsteaming%2Bpast\/6414730\/story.html\">It&#8217;s time<\/a> to book a return ticket from Vegas:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/news.nationalpost.com\/2012\/04\/05\/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll\/\">Wildrose pulling ahead of PCs in election campaign: poll<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/news\/politics\/wildrose-poised-for-majority-in-alberta-poll\/article2391311\/\">Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.stephentaylor.ca\/2012\/04\/new-poll-wildrose-up-by-17-points\/\">New Poll: Wildrose up by 17 points<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all three. Here&#8217;s a graph of Alberta polling in 2012, giving pre-writ polls a 2-week half-life, and shrinking that to 2 days within the writ period:<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Y-x1UU_LsM\/T32xKaLN_ZI\/AAAAAAAADDs\/_Fdsm94CQOs\/s1600\/Vote%2BIntent%2B-%2BApril%2B5%2B2012.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; width: 400px; height: 300px; text-align: center; display: block; cursor: pointer;\" id=\"BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5727929093468323218\" border=\"0\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Y-x1UU_LsM\/T32xKaLN_ZI\/AAAAAAAADDs\/_Fdsm94CQOs\/s400\/Vote%2BIntent%2B-%2BApril%2B5%2B2012.jpg\" \/><\/a><br \/>At this point, seat projections are going to be about as accurate as Danielle Smith&#8217;s platform costing. Using the 2008 election as the baseline doesn&#8217;t make a lot of sense when the Wildrose Party was a completely different entity, unable to crack double digits in most ridings. Toss in the 4-way splits in Edmonton, and it&#8217;s hard to get a sense of what the popular vote translates to.<\/p>\n<p>That said, the end result of a double digit Wildrose lead is self-evident. Every poll shows them well ahead in rural Alberta and, thanks to our possibly-soon-to-be-former PC overlords, the electoral map favours rural ridings.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s not to say the outcome is inevitable. Smith&#8217;s lead will draw attention to her <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calgaryherald.com\/life\/politics\/6411686\/story.html\">positions<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/calgarygrit.blogspot.ca\/2012\/04\/alberta-votes-day-9-ralphbucks-returns.html\">platform<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/daveberta.ca\/2012\/04\/danielle-smith-wildrose-candidates\/\">candidates<\/a>. But the best case scenario for the PCs at this point is eeking out a win, a far cry from less than two months ago when Redford&#8217;s closest advisers <a href=\"http:\/\/beaconnews.ca\/blog\/2012\/02\/is-albertas-most-entertaining-political-season-in-a-lifetime-drawing-to-a-close-gosh-i-hope-not\/\">let it be known <\/a>the &#8220;current seat total of 67 is merely a base from which to build an even bigger majority&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear Wildrose Party candidates, It&#8217;s time to book a return ticket from Vegas: Wildrose pulling ahead of PCs in election campaign: poll Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll New Poll: Wildrose up by 17 points While the Wildrose lead ranges from 7 to 17 points on these polls, the trend is clear on all [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[950,49,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2012-alberta-election","category-alberta-politics","category-polls"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3279"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3279\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3426,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3279\/revisions\/3426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}