{"id":3255,"date":"2012-03-08T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-03-08T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=3255"},"modified":"2012-03-08T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-03-08T19:00:00","slug":"the-first-look-at-redfords-playbook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=3255","title":{"rendered":"The First Look at Redford&#8217;s Playbook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" height=\"120\" src=\"http:\/\/w.soundcloud.com\/player\/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F39026137&amp;show_artwork=true\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>That sound you hear is the unofficial starting gun on Alberta&#8217;s 2012 election, as the PCs launch their <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calgaryherald.com\/news\/Tory%2Btake%2BWildrose\/6268725\/story.html\">first<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/daveberta.ca\/2012\/03\/tory-attack-ads-tame-by-almost-all-standards\/\">round<\/a> of negative ads, under the familiar &#8220;<em>Danielle Smith: Not Worth the Risk<\/em>&#8221; tagline.<\/p>\n<p>The immediate reaction by most has been similar to <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.calgaryherald.com\/2012\/03\/07\/tories-first-attack-ad-ends-long-era-of-phoney-civility\/\">Don Braid&#8217;s<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In my prehistoric memory, the Tories haven\u2019t done anything like this in all the long years since they were first elected on Aug. 30, 1971.<\/p>\n<p>They clearly feel challenged, especially in Calgary, the only place where the ad will run at the beginning.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt proves they see the Wildrose as a real threat,\u201d says Mount Royal University political expert David Taras.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNegative campaigns don\u2019t come out of nowhere. They appear when a party has got a problem.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;m not so convinced this is a sign of problems for the PCs at all &#8211; to me it looks like the table setter of a very sound election strategy.<\/p>\n<p>For starters, this is about as tame as attack ads get. It highlights a legitimate policy difference &#8211; one the Wildrose have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestar.com\/opinion\/editorialopinion\/article\/1137717--alberta-s-wildrose-opposes-tougher-drunk-driving-laws\">turned into an election issue<\/a>, and one the PCs need to get their message out on if we believe the Wildrosers when they claim two thirds of Albertans are against the law. Be they 5 points or 50 points ahead in the polls, it would be foolish of the PCs not to respond, and a limited radio ad buy in Calgary is a fairly timid response.<\/p>\n<p>No, the real story here shouldn&#8217;t be the ad, but the <em>strategy <\/em>it&#8217;s setting up. The &#8220;<em>Not Worth the Risk<\/em>&#8221; message plays to the exact same &#8220;stability&#8221; theme that 6 governments rode to re-election last year. More importantly, this ad is a clear sign Redford wants to position the election as a Wildrose-PC showdown. And who can blame her? That narrative will scare Redford Liberals into voting PC, and it will make disaffected PCs view a vote for the Wildrose as a vote for a possible <em>government<\/em>, rather than a mere protest vote.<\/p>\n<p>If that&#8217;s the strategy behind these ads &#8211; and I suspect it is &#8211; then the media response that the PCs are &#8220;in danger&#8221; and &#8220;worried about the Wildrose&#8221; is the exact reaction Redford&#8217;s team was hoping for. It wouldn&#8217;t at all surprise me if we hear whispers from &#8220;senior PC insiders&#8221; throughout the campaign that they&#8217;re worried they could lose, or that their internal polls have the race much closer than it looks.<\/p>\n<p>In that respect, this ad has little to do with drunk driving and everything to do with framing the next election. The fact that it&#8217;s an attack ad isn&#8217;t at all a sign of desperation &#8211; much as the PCs might like us to believe it is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That sound you hear is the unofficial starting gun on Alberta&#8217;s 2012 election, as the PCs launch their first round of negative ads, under the familiar &#8220;Danielle Smith: Not Worth the Risk&#8221; tagline. The immediate reaction by most has been similar to Don Braid&#8217;s: In my prehistoric memory, the Tories haven\u2019t done anything like this [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[950,12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3255"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}