If the NDP doubles or triples their Quebec-wide vote, it’s impossible <\/em>to predict what the impact will be in each individual riding. The simulation model I use factors this in to a certain extent, which is why I report the probability <\/strong>of a given seat going to each party, rather than boldly saying if they’ll will win or lose. But the end result of this is a 95% confidence interval for NDP seats in Quebec of 3 to 19 – that’s hardly a precise target, and there are a lot of seats they have between a 4% and 8% chance of winning…with a few more polls showing the Dippers in first, that range will creep up.<\/p>\n Pundits Guide has a good article on the danger of taking these projections as the gospel truth<\/a>. It’s also important to remember that a lot can change in a week – just because something is projected today, it doesn’t mean it will come to pass on May 2nd.<\/p>\n So with all those caveats, here’s where we stand with 7 days to go (change since last week<\/a> in brackets<\/em>):<\/p>\n CPC<\/strong> 38.6% (+0.5) Keep in mind that with the exception of a turkey-dinner fueled Nanos poll<\/a>, we haven’t seen data from any phone calls conducted since last Wednesday (NOTE – I ran this before today’s Innovative and Environics polls were released<\/em>).<\/p>\n So the above vote and the following seat projections could very well change significantly in the coming days. As such, I’ll be back with updated projections later this week, a closer look at the seats to watch in each region over the weekend, and a final projection on Sunday night. Also, I’ll post daily seat projections on Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, the largest NDP movement has come in Quebec, where they’ve gone from a 0-7 seat range last week, up to a 3-18 range this week. These gains have come almost exclusively at the Bloc’s expense, with Liberal and Conservative seat ranges in Quebec unchanged from last week:<\/p>\n To get a better sense of how well the model is handling the wacky world of Quebec politics, consider the following two riding polls, released today (and fielded last week):<\/p>\n Brome Mississquoi<\/a> – Bloc 32%, Lib 26%, NDP 26%, CPC 11% Comparatively speaking, my model has Brome as a 35% chance of going Bloc, 35% chance of going Liberal, and 28% chance of going NDP. Which makes a lot of sense given the riding survey findings. It also underscores why a probability model is so much better for these kind of ridings. A simple projection would just put it down as a Bloc victory, without recognizing there’s a very good chance the Liberals and NDP could very well win it.<\/p>\n In Chambly, I still show the Bloc with a 96% chance of winning, with the NDP at just 4% – once again, this is consistent with the riding poll that has the Bloc up by 13 points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Trying to make sense of what the NDP’s Quebec surge means in terms of seats is a difficult game. For starters, most public polls lump all of Quebec together when, in reality, a voter in Montreal is very different from a voter in Abitibi. Just because the Liberals or Conservatives are down province-wide, it doesn’t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1019,983,11,411],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2011-federal-election","category-federal-politics","category-polls","category-seat-projections"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2987"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2987\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3597,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2987\/revisions\/3597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Lib<\/strong> 25.7% (-1.3)
NDP<\/strong> 22.0% (+1.9)
BQ<\/strong> 7.6% (-0.7)
Green<\/strong> 5.1% (-0.4)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-2xJB9Eay5AM\/TbXEmkxAurI\/AAAAAAAACaY\/L4gZtVSu8-0\/s320\/boxplots.JPG\")
<\/a>![\"\"](\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-NPpNtB8csJQ\/TbXEzFU0fAI\/AAAAAAAACa4\/13zr-_CBJsE\/s320\/weekly%2Bseat%2Btotals.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-nyCXNy-z0V4\/TbXEwKlGTcI\/AAAAAAAACaw\/Lwyj0X5mTRg\/s320\/ranges.JPG\")
<\/a>![\"\"](\"http:\/\/4.bp.blogspot.com\/-BEAWIUc-8Uc\/TbXEtfgL4WI\/AAAAAAAACao\/oB5k33IW968\/s320\/means.JPG\")
<\/a><\/p>\n
Chambly Borduas<\/a> – Bloc 37%, NDP 24%, Lib 15%, CPC 7%<\/p>\n