{"id":2897,"date":"2011-03-18T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-03-18T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2897"},"modified":"2011-03-18T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-03-18T22:00:00","slug":"the-not-so-triumphant-return-of-poll-soup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2897","title":{"rendered":"The Not So Triumphant Return Of Poll Soup"},"content":{"rendered":"

I haven’t provided a poll soup update since 2010<\/a>, but with a campaign around the corner, it’s worth checking in. Before we get to that, I must meet Blogging Council standards and issue the following disclaimer:<\/p>\n

Warning – The following post contains graphic information and poll numbers that may not be suitable for some Liberals. Reader discretion is advised.<\/em><\/p>\n

With that out of the way, let’s recap the four March polls:<\/p>\n

Ekos<\/strong><\/a> (Feb 24 to Mar 8, n = 2488 auto dial)<\/p>\n

CPC 35%
Lib 28%
NDP 15%
Bloc 9%
Green 10%
Other 3%<\/p>\n

Angus Reid<\/a><\/strong> (Mar 8 to Mar 9, n = 1021 online)<\/p>\n

CPC 39%
Lib 23%
NDP 17%
Bloc 9%
Green 9%<\/p>\n

Leger <\/strong><\/a>(Mar 7 to Mar 10, n = 2153 online)<\/p>\n

CPC 36%
Lib 23%
NDP 18%
Bloc 10%
Green 10%
Other 3%<\/p>\n

Ipsos <\/strong>(Mar 7 to Mar 9, n = 1002 phone)<\/p>\n

CPC 40%
Lib 27%
NDP 16%
Bloc 11%
Green 5%<\/p>\n

RUNNING AVERAGE <\/strong>(change since December <\/a>in brackets<\/em>)<\/p>\n

CPC<\/strong>: 37.7% (+1.6%)
<\/em>Lib<\/strong>: 25.8% (-2.7%)
<\/em>NDP<\/strong>: 16.4% (+0.8%)
<\/em>BQ<\/strong>: 9.7% (-0.1%)
<\/em>Green<\/strong>: 8.1% (-0.4%)<\/p>\n

<\/em>
As a programming note, the average above is based on all <\/em>polls (not just those listed here), taking into account:
-sample size
-pollster accuracy (based on provincial and federal elections over the past 5 years)
-a 14 day half life (so a new poll is weighted twice as heavily as a 2-week old poll)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As the graph shows, we’ve definitely seen a widening of the Tory lead since January. To pinpoint it, I shrunk the poll halflife to 5 days and retroactively ran week-by-week averages:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As you can see, the gap really widens around early-to-mid February. Your guess is as good as mine as to the cause. The current theory I’m working on places most of the blame on Charlie Sheen.<\/p>\n

So what does this all mean? Well, my seat projection<\/a> formula gives the Tories an 85% chance at a majority, and projects the following seat ranges (at 95% confidence):<\/p>\n

CPC: 148 to 178
LPC: 53 to 79
Bloc: 49 to 61
NDP: 17 to 31<\/p>\n

Although the national vote numbers are largely in line with the last election result, the Tories get into majority territory because their support is up <\/em>in Ontario (which means a dozen extra seats) and down <\/em>in Quebec (which means a few less) and Alberta (which means zero<\/em> less).<\/p>\n

Now before anyone panics, keep in mind this is based on the polls we’re seeing right now. Polls of a relatively unengaged electorate. The vote numbers will <\/em>move during a campaign. The last three times the government changed in Canada, the party taking power trailed at the start of the campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I haven’t provided a poll soup update since 2010, but with a campaign around the corner, it’s worth checking in. Before we get to that, I must meet Blogging Council standards and issue the following disclaimer: Warning – The following post contains graphic information and poll numbers that may not be suitable for some Liberals. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2897"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2897\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}