{"id":2796,"date":"2010-11-11T19:38:00","date_gmt":"2010-11-12T00:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2796"},"modified":"2010-11-11T19:38:00","modified_gmt":"2010-11-12T00:38:00","slug":"november-poll-soup-the-more-things-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2796","title":{"rendered":"November Poll Soup: The More Things Change…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>
With a slew of polls out so far in November, this is a good time to check in on what the pollsters are saying. Not surprisingly, after a ho-hum fall on Parliament Hill, there hasn’t been a lot of movement.<\/p>\n

Ekos<\/strong> <\/a>(Nov 3 to Nov 9, n = 1,815 demon dial)
CPC 29.4%
Lib 28.6%
NDP 19.3%
BQ 9.3%
Green 10.7%<\/p>\n

Nanos<\/strong><\/a> (Nov 1 to Nov 5, n = 1,017 phone)
CPC 37.1%
Lib 31.6%
NDP 15.4%
BQ 10.8%
Green 5.2%<\/p>\n

Ipsos Reid<\/strong><\/a> (Nov 2 to Nov 4, n = 1,000 phone)
CPC 35%
Lib 29%
NDP 16%
BQ 8%
Green 11%<\/p>\n

Abacus <\/strong><\/a>(Oct 29 to Nov 1, n = 1,001 online)
CPC 33%
Lib 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 10%
Green 10%
(Given this is a new kid on the bloc, it was an online survey, and the Lib\/NDP numbers seem a bit off, I’d be careful when looking at this one)<\/em><\/p>\n

Decima<\/strong> <\/a>(Oct 21 to Oct 31, n = 2000 phone)
CPC 33%
Lib 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Green 10%<\/p>\n

RUNNING AVERAGE<\/u> <\/strong><\/em>(change since the end of September<\/a> in brackets)<\/p>\n

CPC<\/span><\/strong>: 33.7% (-0.2%)
<\/span>Lib<\/strong>: 28.7% (-1.0%)
<\/span>NDP<\/strong>: 16.8% (+2.1%)
<\/span>BQ<\/strong>: 9.4% (-0.3%)
<\/span>Green<\/strong>: 9.6% (-0.6%)<\/p>\n

<\/span>Note: the running average is calculated based on pollster accuracy ratings, giving all polls (not just those listed above) a 2 week half life so that “fresher” data is worth more.<\/em><\/p>\n

The largest change from September has been a jump in support for the NDP but, in reality, this is just a case of the NDP returning to their usual “resting position” after dipping this fall. They’re still below the 18% we saw from them back in the spring and would lose seats if an election were held today (updated seat projections to come tomorrow).<\/p>\n

Once again, this serves as a great reminder of how little change there has been in the Canadian political landscape since Harper took power in 2006. The Conservatives took that election by 6 points. Since then, Dion proposed a carbon tax, the Liberals got a new leader. Harper played the piano, Harper prorogued Parliament. Each time, the polls moved. The Tories have flirted with majority. The Liberals have pulled ahead by a few points once or twice. <\/p>\n

But, slowly and surely, they always seem to drift back to that 6-point Tory lead, with the NDP merrily in the high teens and Quebec firmly in Gilles Duceppe’s grip.<\/p>\n

In short, we haven’t seen a “game changer”. Moreover, after seeing Stephen Harper as Prime Minister for 5 years, the electorate hasn’t grown any more or less enamoured with the man. Sure, our attitude <\/em>towards him has changed. Those who dislike Harper now do so more out of frustration than out of fear. But the man is still very much in minority territory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With a slew of polls out so far in November, this is a good time to check in on what the pollsters are saying. Not surprisingly, after a ho-hum fall on Parliament Hill, there hasn’t been a lot of movement. Ekos (Nov 3 to Nov 9, n = 1,815 demon dial)CPC 29.4%Lib 28.6%NDP 19.3%BQ 9.3%Green […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2796"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2796"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2796\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}