The British election is now a week away and the Conservatives seem all but assured of victory – the real question is whether or not they’ll be able to get their majority. Sound familiar?<\/p>\n
The real twist is the rise of the Liberal Democrats, which has buggered up most seat projections. But hey, that just makes it more fun. Here’s the skinny on UK polling numbers and projections:<\/p>\n
1) The UK Polling Report has all the latest polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n 2) The gambling line at Betfair<\/a> sets the Conservatives at 318, Labour at 216, the LibDems at 87, and other parties at 29.<\/p>\n 3) You can play around yourself with BBC’s swingometer<\/a>. Just plug in the numbers and, Bob’s your uncle, you get projected seat counts!<\/p>\n 4) A more advanced projection model can be found here<\/a>. My only qualm is that I just don’t think there are enough data points to customize vote patterns on a riding by riding basis. Regardless, it projects the Conservatives at 291 seats, Labour at 209, the LibDems at 120, with 8 seats going to other parties. It sets the odds of a Tory majority at 8%.<\/p>\n