There are four new polls out this week, showing a surprising amount of consistency between them – so it’s probably worth updating the rolling average:<\/p>\n
Angus Reid<\/a><\/strong> (September 29-30, n = 1000 online) Ekos<\/span> <\/a>(September 23-29, n = 3216 auto dialed)<\/p>\n CPC<\/span> 36.0% Ipsos<\/span> Reid<\/a> <\/strong>(September 22-24, n = 1001 phone)<\/p>\n CPC<\/span> 37% Leger <\/a><\/strong>(September 22-25, n = 3602 phone)<\/p>\n CPC<\/span> 36% OVERALL<\/u> <\/strong>(change since <\/em>early September <\/em><\/a>in brackets)<\/em><\/p>\n CPC<\/span> 36.5% <\/strong> (+1.8%) Even though the overall vote numbers represent an increase <\/em>in Liberal support from the last election, this has prompted a new round of majority speculation. Andrew Coyne<\/span><\/a> rightly points out that the Tories are positioned for gains in Ontario – something that could propel them to their elusive<\/span> majority.<\/p>\n But I don’t think they’re there yet.<\/p>\n Coyne<\/span> references the 4-poll average Tory lead of 42% to 33% in Ontario. A quick seat projection has the Tories grabbing an extra 5 seats with that spread…and maybe another 4 or 5 if things break really nicely for them. Nice, but not enough.<\/p>\n Now, if you just use Angus’ 14-point Ontario gap, the Tories hit 64 seats, a 13 seat gain. That’s only a majority if they hold their seats elsewhere…definitely not a sure thing in Quebec. To get into the magical 70 seat range needed for the majority, they’d need the NDP<\/span> vote to collapse in Northern Ontario too. Because so long as the NDP<\/span> wins 15 seats across the province, there are enough Liberal safe seats in Toronto to prevent the Tories from running up the score too much.<\/p>\n This is all fun speculation and who knows – maybe in 5 months we’ll be speculation about the road to a Liberal majority. The somewhat obvious messages from all this are that Ontario is important, the road to a majority is a long one, and the Liberals aren’t in great shape in Ontario these days. And yes, I’m aware that most of those observations fall under the category of “painfully obvious”.<\/p>\n ALSO…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n There’s a new Harris Decima<\/span> out today that shows Canadians would rather not have an election until 2013<\/a>. This begs an interesting question – what percentage of Canadians would rather hold off until 2015? Or 2020? Hell, how many would say “screw it, let’s forget this unpleasant election business altogether<\/em>“?<\/p>\n The poll also finds support for Jack Layton’s position on supporting the government until EI<\/span> legislation passes. Which makes a certain amount of sense. Even though he’ll get pilloried for what’s an obviously hypocritical<\/a> stand by the media, bloggers<\/span>, and anyone who follows politics closely, Jack’s message<\/a> doesn’t sound all that unreasonable to a general public fed up with the brinkmanship<\/span> and squabbling in Ottawa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" There are four new polls out this week, showing a surprising amount of consistency between them – so it’s probably worth updating the rolling average: Angus Reid (September 29-30, n = 1000 online)CPC 37%Lib 27%NDP 17%BQ 11%Green 6% Ekos (September 23-29, n = 3216 auto dialed) CPC 36.0%Lib 29.7%NDP 13.9%BQ 9.8%Green 10.5% Ipsos Reid (September […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2440"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
CPC<\/span> 37%
Lib 27%
NDP<\/span> 17%
BQ<\/span> 11%
Green 6%<\/p>\n
Lib 29.7%
NDP<\/span> 13.9%
BQ<\/span> 9.8%
Green 10.5%<\/p>\n
Lib 30%
NDP<\/span> 14%
BQ<\/span> 9%
Green 9%<\/p>\n
Lib 30%
NDP<\/span> 17%
BQ<\/span> 8%
Green 8%<\/p>\n
<\/span>Lib 29.2%<\/strong> (-2.2%)
<\/span>NDP<\/span> 15.5% <\/strong> (nc<\/span>)
BQ<\/span> 9.5%<\/strong> (-0.2%)
<\/span>Green 8.4%<\/strong> (+0.3%)
<\/span><\/p>\n