{"id":2291,"date":"2009-06-01T20:43:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-02T00:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2291"},"modified":"2009-06-01T20:43:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-02T00:43:00","slug":"a-side-for-the-soup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2291","title":{"rendered":"A Side for the Soup"},"content":{"rendered":"

I figured Ekos<\/span> and Angus Reid would be reporting soon…so I held off right until the end of May for my polling update<\/a>, but it looks like I should have waited another day.<\/p>\n

Two new polls are out today, both showing the Liberals with a slight lead:<\/p>\n

Ekos<\/span> <\/a><\/strong>(n = 10,986, demon dialed)
Lib 33.5%
CPC<\/span> 32.3%
NDP<\/span> 15.1%
Green 10.4%
BQ<\/span> 8.7%<\/p>\n

Angus Reid <\/a><\/strong>(n = 1,002, online)
Lib 33%
CPC<\/span> 31%
NDP<\/span> 17%
BQ<\/span> 9%
Green 7%<\/p>\n

So, what does it all mean vis<\/span>-a-vis<\/span> the infamous attack ads?<\/p>\n

Well, off the bat, there hasn’t been much movement in the polls. The Tories are down 2 in Angus Reid, while the Liberal lead has shrunk in Ekos<\/span> – both polls are consistent with what most pollsters have been saying of late<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Angus Reid did some funky split samples, with 1\/3 of respondents being shown the attack ads, 1\/3 being shown the ads and Iggy’s YouTube response, and 1\/3 serving as the control group. Here’s what they found:<\/p>\n

The momentum score for Harper among respondents who saw the ad is -40 (10% improved, 50% worsened), and the prime minister posts similar numbers among those who saw the ad and the video (9% improved, 52% worsened) and those who were not exposed directly to either the ad or the video (7% improved, 49% worsened).<\/p>\n

The momentum score for Ignatieff<\/span> among respondents who saw the ad is -18 (24% improved, 42% worsened). However, the opposition leader bridges the gap with those who also saw his YouTube video (29% improved, 31% worsened) and is even among those who did not see the ad or the video (28% improved, 28% worsened).<\/em><\/p>\n

For the purposes of the comparison, it should be pointed out that a month ago<\/a>,
they had Ignatieff’s<\/span> momentum at +11 and Harper’s at -20. So both men took a beating, even in the control groups. That’s not to say the ads are necessarily<\/span> the cause – over the past month we’ve seen Ruby Dhalla<\/span> controversy, a 50 billion dollar deficit, Archie choose Veronica over Betty…who knows what could be responsible?<\/p>\n

But back to the experiment. It doesn’t seem like direct exposure to the ads changed impressions of Harper significantly (from -42 to -40), but they certainly had an impact of what people thought of Ignatieff<\/span> (from 0 to -18).<\/p>\n

However, most of this damage seems to have been neutralized by seeing the response video<\/a>. The logical conclusion is therefore that the Liberals cannot afford to stay quiet. The only problem is, even with improving fundraising numbers, can they afford <\/em>to respond?<\/p>\n

And, you know, anyone who wants to help them do just that, might want to mosey on over here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I figured Ekos and Angus Reid would be reporting soon…so I held off right until the end of May for my polling update, but it looks like I should have waited another day. Two new polls are out today, both showing the Liberals with a slight lead: Ekos (n = 10,986, demon dialed)Lib 33.5%CPC 32.3%NDP […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2291"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}