{"id":2285,"date":"2009-05-28T08:47:00","date_gmt":"2009-05-28T12:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2285"},"modified":"2009-05-28T08:47:00","modified_gmt":"2009-05-28T12:47:00","slug":"sondage-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=2285","title":{"rendered":"Sondage Says…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It’s been a busy week for political polls…I’ll have the May poll dance up by week’s end, but with two Quebec-only polls in field at the same time, this is a good chance to take a close look at a province which is all too often overlooked by both pundits and politicians – Quebec.<\/p>\n

Leger<\/a>, CROP<\/a>, and Ipsos<\/span> <\/a>were all in field last week – if we take a weighted average based on their Quebec samples, we get the following:<\/p>\n

Liberals 35%
Bloc 35%
CPC<\/span> 14%
NDP<\/span> 13%<\/p>\n

Pas pire<\/span>,<\/em> no matter how you slice it, considering the Liberals have generally been about 15 points back of the Bloc in all three post-Chretien elections (although they did hit 34% in 2004).<\/p>\n

I haven’t been able to see the regional tables at all, but the CROP poll does detail the collapse of Harper’s Quebec City Fortress:<\/p>\n

Puis<\/span>, les<\/span> troupes de<\/span> Stephen Harper ont<\/span> gliss\u00e9<\/span> au<\/span> troisi\u00e8me<\/span> rang des<\/span> intentions de<\/span> vote dans<\/span> leur<\/span> bastion de<\/span> la r\u00e9gion<\/span> de<\/span> Qu\u00e9bec<\/span>, tout juste<\/span> derri\u00e8re<\/span> le<\/span> Bloc qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois<\/span> et<\/span> \u00e0 10 points du<\/span> Parti<\/span> lib\u00e9ral<\/span>. \u00c0 ce<\/span> chapitre<\/span>, le<\/span> PLC<\/span> termine<\/span> au<\/span> premier rang, avec<\/span> 33%. C’est<\/span> du<\/span> jamais<\/span> vu<\/span> depuis<\/span> janvier<\/span> 2004, soit<\/span> quelques<\/span> semaines<\/span> avant<\/span> la publication du<\/span> rapport d\u00e9vastateur<\/span> de<\/span> la v\u00e9rificatrice<\/span> g\u00e9n\u00e9rale<\/span> sur<\/span> le<\/span> scandale<\/span> des<\/span> commandites<\/span>.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The Liberals haven’t won a seat in Quebec City since 2000, and finished third in every riding there last election – usually well over 10,000 votes behind. With little organization in the region, they’ll clearly have to put some resources into it – all the more evidence why it makes sense to have a 308 riding strategy, where you at least have a base level of organization in every riding that can be mobilized when things like this happen.<\/p>\n

So what does this all mean electorally? Well, it’s too early to tell, but a real quick and dirty seat projection based on the 2008 results shows the Liberals poised to win between 20-30 seats in Quebec. And that’s just the way the Quebec map usually plays out – in the 1997 election for instance, the Bloc edged the Liberals 38% to 37%, but beat them on seats 44 to 26.<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

So while these gains are nice, they also show the 66-seat gap won’t be closed in Quebec alone. Even in the best-case Quebec scenario, the Liberals will need to flip at least 20-25 seats elsewhere, in order to get back to government. (certainly doable, given stories like this<\/a>)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s been a busy week for political polls…I’ll have the May poll dance up by week’s end, but with two Quebec-only polls in field at the same time, this is a good chance to take a close look at a province which is all too often overlooked by both pundits and politicians – Quebec. Leger, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false},"categories":[11,86],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2285"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2285\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}