Here\u2019s my election preview with some free advice for the four parties in the legislature:<\/p>\n
The Progressive Conservative Party, led by Ed \u201cI\u2019m not Harry Strom\u201d Stelmach<\/a><\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n Hold<\/strong>: 62 seats Minimize Ed\u2019s media exposure and keep him scripted tightly as much as possible. If asked about why their leader is keeping quiet, answer, \u201cI\u2019m a man of action, not words\u201d. Lower expectations for the debate as much as possible and spend a lot of time on debate prep.<\/p>\n Blanket the airwaves with positive messaging that make it seem like the PCs are responsible for Alberta\u2019s wealth, but keep a few nasty \u201cLiberals bogah bogah\u201d ads in the can for the last week if things get dire.<\/p>\n The Alberta (Don\u2019t Call Me) Liberal Party, led by Kevin Taft<\/strong><\/u> Game plan I\u2019d run<\/strong>: Release a realistic platform early that stays away from too many flashy promises, and emphasize fiscal responsibility. This summer, the ALP got a quasi-endorsement from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and the Herald called them \u201cKevin Taft\u2019s small c conservative Liberal Party\u201d \u2013 things like that will get you elected; being the \u201ctax and spend\u201d Liberals who want to shut down the oilpatch will not.<\/p>\n Once the mandatory policy is out of the way, attack Stelmach 24\/7 and promise change \u2013 not so much on the policy front, but in the way government is run. I think there\u2019s some traction on the \u201cno plan<\/a>\u201d angle too and I would try and paint Stelmach\u2019s government as a bunch of farmers out of touch with the urban realities of the new Alberta (except, you know, do it more subtly than I just did).<\/p>\n Oh, and since it\u2019s too late for a name change, I\u2019d call the party the \u201cALP\u201d whenever possible \u2013 the Liberal brand name is still toxic in Alberta. And if the ALP gets a chance to praise Stephen Harper or slam Stephane Dion at some point during the campaign, they should pounce on it.<\/p>\n The New Democratic Party, led by Brian \u201csmarmier than Jack Layton\u201d Mason<\/strong><\/u> <\/p>\n If the PCs are ahead, argue that the NDP are a better voice of opposition than the Liberals. If it\u2019s looking close, start using the \u201cm\u201d word and argue that the NDP will have real power in a minority government.<\/p>\n The Wildrose (we\u2019ll form an) Alliance (with anyone) Party, led by Paul Hinman<\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n Hold<\/strong>: 1 seat It\u2019s official \u2013 Albertans will head to the polls March 3rd, at which point the Tories will have been in power for 13,324 consecutive days. Like most democracies Alberta does hold elections, but these are usually more for show than anything else. Yes, you do get a government change every generation or two, but there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2008-alberta-election"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1647\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Reason for optimism<\/strong>: 37 years and counting\u2026
Reason for concern<\/strong>: Alberta\u2019s history of \u201cBlack Swan<\/a>\u201d elections
Unlikely ally<\/strong>: Pierre Trudeau, from beyond the grave
Official Slogan<\/strong>: \u201cChange that works for Alberta<\/em>\u201d
Unofficial Slogan<\/strong>: \u201cWho else are ya gonna vote for<\/em>?\u201d
Target Ridings<\/strong>: Just trying to limit the damage in Calgary, and maybe pick up Hinman\u2019s seat or a few in the Edmonton region. <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/_L6NW1UySEKs\/R6ezBDuUgJI\/AAAAAAAAAUo\/GzeGQ5dD9EU\/s200\/edsign.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n
<\/a>
Hold<\/strong>: 16 seats
Reason for optimism<\/strong>: Have you heard Ed Stelmach speak?
Reason for concern<\/strong>: The words \u201cAlberta\u201d and \u201cLiberal\u201d are antonyms
Unlikely ally<\/strong>: If Paul Hinman\u2019s wild Alliance can crack 10% in the urban and semi-urban areas, a lot of seats are suddenly in play
Official Slogan<\/strong>: \u201cIt\u2019s time<\/em>\u201d
Unofficial Slogan<\/strong>: \u201c37 years? What the fuck is wrong with you people<\/em>?\u201d
Target Ridings<\/strong>: Calgary is ripe for the picking, but they\u2019ll also need to win the seats outside of Edmonton, and the mid-sized cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, and Fort Mac. ![\"\"](\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_L6NW1UySEKs\/R6ezdTuUgKI\/AAAAAAAAAUw\/eVykP9G8dDQ\/s200\/tafttime.jpg\")
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<\/a>
Hold<\/strong>: 4 seats
Reason for optimism<\/strong>: Taft has yet to capitalize on the protest vote
Reason for concern<\/strong>: Brutal by election results last spring
Unlikely ally<\/strong>: Ed Stelmach. If the PCs steal Liberal votes in Edmonton, Mason stands to benefit. If the election is actually close, expect NDP voters to jump to the Liberals en masse<\/em>.
Official Slogan<\/strong>: “On your side<\/em>“![\"\"](\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_L6NW1UySEKs\/R6e3VTuUgNI\/AAAAAAAAAVI\/owk-Bz_tmHQ\/s200\/brianmason.jpg\")
<\/a>Unofficial Slogan<\/strong>: \u201cYou\u2019ll never get change\u2026so at least get a louder opposition<\/em>\u201d
Target Ridings<\/strong>: They\u2019re probably trying to hold the four they have, and hope to pick up one or two new Edmonton seats. <\/div>\n
Reason for optimism<\/strong>: They\u2019ve merged, ending months<\/em> of vote splitting on the far right.
Reason for concern<\/strong>: Bringing two dysfunctional parties together does not necessarily equal one functional party.
Unlikely ally<\/strong>: If the Sun chain and the Rutherfords of the world start taking them seriously, people might catch on.
Official Slogan<\/strong>: (they don\u2019t appear to have gotten around to that quite yet<\/em>)
Unofficial Slogan<\/strong>: Right is Right.
Target Ridings<\/strong>: Hinman\u2019s seat and Dunvegan-Central Peace were the only two ridings they were![\"\"](\"http:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/_L6NW1UySEKs\/R6e4bDuUgOI\/AAAAAAAAAVQ\/cg1PGQGfaHA\/s200\/hinman.jpg\")
<\/a> close in last time but a few other<\/a> rural ones could potentially fall if they catch fire.<\/div>\n