{"id":1167,"date":"2006-11-17T19:17:00","date_gmt":"2006-11-18T00:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=1167"},"modified":"2006-11-17T19:17:00","modified_gmt":"2006-11-18T00:17:00","slug":"great-moments-in-prognostication","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=1167","title":{"rendered":"Great Moments in Prognostication"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With the Liberal convention under two weeks away, I thought it might be fun to take a stroll down memory lane&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>July 2005<\/strong>: Calgary Grit <a href=\"http:\/\/calgarygrit.blogspot.com\/2005\/07\/unofficial-race.html\">projects a race <\/a>anyone of four people could win&#8230;those four people being Manley, McKenna, Brison, and Cauchon. Also declares that Michael Ignatieff&#8217;s experience in Cabinet will make it or break it for him&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2006<\/strong>: Andrew Coyne polls his readers. 47% think <a href=\"http:\/\/poll.pollhost.com\/YWNveW5lCTExMzgxNDkyOTEJRUVFRUVFCTAwMDAwMAlBcmlhbAlBc3NvcnRlZA\/\">Frank McKenna will win<\/a>, 59% of Tories <a href=\"http:\/\/poll.pollhost.com\/YWNveW5lCTExMzgxNDcxODgJRUVFRUVFCTAwMDAwMAlBcmlhbAlBc3NvcnRlZA\/\">want Belinda Stronach to win<\/a>, and the field is split on <a href=\"http:\/\/poll.pollhost.com\/YWNveW5lCTExMzgxNDkxMzAJRUVFRUVFCTAwMDAwMAlBcmlhbAlBc3NvcnRlZA\/\">who the Liberals <em>should <\/em>elect<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2006<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vijaysappani.com\/myblog\/?p=139\">Vijay Sappani projects the convention right down to the final ballot<\/a>. Volpe, Cauchon, McKenna, and Ignatieff are the final four standing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2006<\/strong>: The <a href=\"http:\/\/calgarygrit.blogspot.com\/2006\/01\/draft-paul-hellyer.html\">Draft Paul Hellyer Campaign <\/a>gathers <a href=\"http:\/\/hellyerforliberalleader.blogspot.com\/\">steam and momentum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2006: <\/strong>Jason Cherniak declares that Stephane Dion isn&#8217;t <a href=\"http:\/\/jasoncherniak.blogspot.com\/2006\/01\/dion-for-quebec-lieutenant.html\">emotive <\/a>enough to <a href=\"http:\/\/jasoncherniak.blogspot.com\/2006\/01\/in-answer-to-paul-wells.html\">become leader<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>January 2006<\/strong>: Paul Wells has shocking news on <a href=\"http:\/\/weblogs.macleans.ca\/paulwells\/archives\/week_2006_01_29-2006_02_04.asp#002124\">who <em>isn&#8217;t <\/em>running<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2006: <\/strong>Paul Wells inadvertently <a href=\"http:\/\/weblogs.macleans.ca\/paulwells\/archives\/week_2006_01_29-2006_02_04.asp#002133\">kills the Draft Dion blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2006: <\/strong>It&#8217;s widely reported that Gerard Kennedy <a href=\"http:\/\/canadiancerberus.blogspot.com\/2006\/02\/kennedy-out-cauchon-out.html\">will not run <\/a>for Liberal leadership.<\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2006<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.politicalstaples.com\/2006\/02\/20\/3_out_of_4_aint_bad.html\">SES declares Ken Dryden <\/a>is the candidate Ontarians most want to win.<\/p>\n<p><strong>February 2006<\/strong>: Calgary Grit takes a look at some <em>other <\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/calgarygrit.blogspot.com\/2006\/02\/fantasy-leadership.html\">long-shot candidates<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>April 2006:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestar.com\/NASApp\/cs\/ContentServer?pagename=thestar\/Layout\/Article_Type1&#038;c=Article&amp;amp;cid=1144534235074&#038;call_pageid=968332188774&amp;col=968350116467\">Clifford Blais, Ruby Dhalla, and Paul Zed <\/a>are among the &#8220;declared candidates&#8221; to speak at the LPCA leadership forum in Edmonton.<\/p>\n<p><strong>April 2006: <\/strong>The Globe &#038; Mail lists <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/servlet\/Page\/document\/v4\/sub\/MarketingPage?user_URL=http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com%2Fservlet%2Fstory%2FRTGAM.20060410.wxliberals10%2FBNStory%2FNational%2F&amp;ord=1163804056691&#038;brand=theglobeandmail&amp;force_login=true\">Scott Brison and Ken Dryden <\/a>as being in the &#8220;top tier&#8221; of six Liberal candidates capable of winning.<\/p>\n<p><strong>July 2006: <\/strong>The Volpe campaign claims to have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/servlet\/Page\/document\/v4\/sub\/MarketingPage?user_URL=http:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com%2Fservlet%2Fstory%2FLAC.20060706.LIBERALS06%2FTPStory%2FNational&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;ord=9329768&#038;brand=theglobeandmail&amp;redirect_reason=2&#038;denial_reasons=none&amp;force_login=false\">signed up more Liberals <\/a>than anyone else and the Globe reports that Volpe leads in Quebec. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.canada.com\/topics\/news\/national\/story.html?id=ad414749-93d1-43f0-b5b2-bbf9b07fcb99&#038;k=43920\">Jimmy K<\/a> claims 35,000 to 37,000 new sign ups which puts Volpe &#8220;pretty well in the lead&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2006<\/strong>: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gandalfgroup.ca\/downloads\/Liberal_Leadership_The_Publics_Choice.pdf\">A Frodo poll <\/a>shows that the overwhelming choice of Canadians is&#8230;Ken Dryden.<\/p>\n<p><strong>September 2006<\/strong>: The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ctv.ca\/servlet\/ArticleNews\/story\/CTVNews\/20060919\/libs_poll_060919?s_name=&amp;no_ads=\">Strategic Council polls Liberals <\/a>and projects Super Wekend with Michael Ignatieff at 19% and Gerard Kennedy at 9%.<\/p>\n<p>The moral of the story? It&#8217;s been a hugely unpredictable race and it&#8217;s going to stay unpredictable right down to the final ballot on December 2nd.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the Liberal convention under two weeks away, I thought it might be fun to take a stroll down memory lane&#8230; July 2005: Calgary Grit projects a race anyone of four people could win&#8230;those four people being Manley, McKenna, Brison, and Cauchon. Also declares that Michael Ignatieff&#8217;s experience in Cabinet will make it or break [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1167\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}