{"id":1082,"date":"2006-09-19T02:20:00","date_gmt":"2006-09-19T06:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=1082"},"modified":"2006-09-19T02:20:00","modified_gmt":"2006-09-19T06:20:00","slug":"projections-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/?p=1082","title":{"rendered":"Projections Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

(for methodology used, click here<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n

Cerberus and DemocraticSpace have posted projections today so I figured I’d take the time to update my leadership projections <\/a>and posted them on google spreadsheets for everyone to take a look<\/a> at (if you’d like the excel file with formulas, e-mail me). I recognize that it may not be the easiest to read so e-mail me if you’re confused by the set-up.<\/p>\n

I’ve updated the numbers for endorsements<\/a>, MP endorsements<\/a>, blog endorsements<\/a>, ex-officio support (averaged between delegate count <\/a>and wikipedia<\/a>), other<\/a> projections<\/a>, and media mentions. I’ve also bit the bullet and used the bizarre fundraising numbers <\/a>which were released in August. Hopefully we’ll see some figures released soon which bring all the candidates up to August 31st. I’ve also tinkered with the existing member support in a few ridings, primarily to help Bob Rae who has undeniably had a good month (also gave him a few more membership sales in Ontario under the assumption that some of Bennett’s support will drift his way).
<\/a>
When that’s all said and done, here are my updated first ballot predictions:<\/p>\n

Michael Ignatieff 26.2%<\/strong>
Gerard Kennedy 18.5%<\/strong>
Bob Rae 15.9%<\/strong>
Stephane Dion 13.9%<\/strong>
Joe Volpe 10.2%<\/strong>
Scott Brison 6.5%<\/strong>
Ken Dryden 6.4%<\/strong>
Martha Hall Findlay 2.0%<\/strong>
Hedy Fry 0.5%<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(for methodology used, click here) Cerberus and DemocraticSpace have posted projections today so I figured I’d take the time to update my leadership projections and posted them on google spreadsheets for everyone to take a look at (if you’d like the excel file with formulas, e-mail me). I recognize that it may not be the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1082"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1082\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.calgarygrit.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}