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Seen in Calgary
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November Seat Projections
Yesterday, I gave an overview of the polling numbers – today, an updated seat projection. The long explanation of how I came up with these numbers is here. The short of it is the model simulates an election 10,000 times, taking the following into account: -Publicly released polling data-2004, 2006, and 2008 election results-Riding demographics-The […]
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November Poll Soup: The More Things Change…
With a slew of polls out so far in November, this is a good time to check in on what the pollsters are saying. Not surprisingly, after a ho-hum fall on Parliament Hill, there hasn’t been a lot of movement. Ekos (Nov 3 to Nov 9, n = 1,815 demon dial)CPC 29.4%Lib 28.6%NDP 19.3%BQ 9.3%Green […]
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Keith Martin Retires
I’m not sure if it’s the weather or what, but it seems like everyone is deciding to pack it up. Another day, another retirement announcement – this time Liberal MP Keith Martin. I’ve always had a lot of time for Keith Martin. He entered politics for the right reasons. When he switched parties, it wasn’t […]
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Julian Fantino’s Greatest Hits
Over on his blog, Stephen Taylor takes a few shots at the grits by election candidate in Vaughan, Tony Genco. Here’s a summary of Taylor’s damning criticism: 1. Genco doesn’t mention Ignatieff in his brochure. “Is Genco relying more on the Liberal brand which is likely polling higher than the Ignatieff brand in Vaughan??” asks […]
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PC Glee
From the Alberta PC convention this weekend, a musical talent show that’s just beging for someone to edit in some Simon Cowell quips. It’s absolutely horrifying, but it’s still worth at least skipping ahead to the 10:30 mark to see Ted Morton and Dave Hancock’s duet of Kumbaya. After watching that, I’m all the more […]
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This Week in Alberta – Behind the Numbers
It turns out the polling presentation made to the PC campaign committee at their AGM last weekend has been left on a public server. Oops. Mind you, given the numbers are fairly flattering to Stelmach and don’t reveal much about PC strategy or messaging, I suspect this may have been a somewhat intentional “accident”. Still, […]
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Maybe he’s running for the BC Liberal Leadership…
Prentice and the Tory caucus, in happier times Sadly, he’s not resigning in furor over the potash deal. There isn’t a hidden scandal involving Chinese pandas. He’s not in any way involved with Julie Couillard. Rather, Jim Prentice will resign as an MP to take a Vice-President position at CIBC. I’m not up on my […]
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Campbell Resigns
One of the most interesting story lines in Canadian politics over the past year has been the fate of the three Liberal Titans – Dalton McGuinty, Jean Charest, and Gordon Campbell. Their political background, beliefs, and styles are very different, but they’ve dominated the political landscape in Canada for close to a decade. Hell, the […]
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The Great Potash Debate
Seeing all the news stories out there about potash this week, I feel like most Canadians did during the Great Summer Census Crisis of 2010. You see, I keep going back on forth on whether or not I support the Potash Corp takeover…then it occurs to me I don’t even have a clue what potash […]