The Liberal leadership race is the first real test of the supporter system, and with the cut-off to sign up and vote now passed, we have our first indication of how successful the experiment has been:
That’s over twice as many members as the NDP recruited last spring, and over 100,000 more than the highly competitive 2006 Liberal Leadership Race. It’s hard to say if this boom is due to the supporter system or Trudeaumania II, but as the following table shows, by any metric you use it’s one of the most successful leadership drives in recent memory:
Race | Format | Candidates | Eligible | Per Vote | Per Pop |
2013 LPC | WOMOV Supporters | 8 | 294,002 | 10.6% | 0.9% |
2013 OLP | Delegated Convention | 7 | 45,000 | 2.8% | 0.4% |
2012 NDP | OMOV | 7 | 128,351 | 2.9% | 0.4% |
2011 BQ | OMOV | 3 | 36,341 | 4.1% | 0.5% |
2011 BC Libs | WOMOV | 4 | 92,000 | 12.2% | 2.1% |
2011 AB Libs | WOMOV Supporters | 5 | 27,567 | 21.6% | 0.8% |
2009 ON PC | WOMOV | 4 | 42,000 | 2.9% | 0.3% |
2009 ON NDP | OMOV | 4 | 23,908 | 2.8% | 0.2% |
2006 LPC | Delegates Convention | 8 | 185,000 | 2.6% | 0.6% |
2004 Conservative | WOMOV | 3 | 251,000 | 5.7% | 0.8% |
2004 ON PC | WOMOV | 3 | 61,104 | 4.0% | 0.5% |
It remains to be seen how many of these supporters will actually vote, but when it comes to collecting contact information and bringing new blood into the fold, the numbers are encouraging. The Liberals signed up 0.9% of all Canadians and 10.6% of their previous election voters – both totals greatly exceeding any federal leadership race of the past decade.
Of course, huge sign-ups for the 2011 Liberal leadership races in BC and Alberta haven’t translated to electoral success, so it’s a little premature to start measuring the drapes at 24 Sussex.
But this contest appears to have given the Liberals a jolt of life, which is not always the case during a de facto coronation. Paul Martin capped his decade-long regicide in 2003 with restrictive membership rules and a process that left the party divided. The Party establishment was so enthralled with Michael Ignatieff in 2009, that they didn’t even bother giving members a say.
You can argue all you want about Trudeau’s qualifications and readiness for the job, but at the very least this is a coronation that has brought hundreds of thousands of new Liberals into the fold. Open and competitive races are no doubt more difficult on the frontrunner than hotwired acclamations, but both the party and Trudeau will be stronger in the long run because of this process.