Toronto Municipal Politics

As Easy As 1-2-3

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Toronto Municipal Politics | 1 Comment

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Something good happened at Toronto City Hall this week.

I know, I know. I’m as surprised as you are.

Councillors vote to seek end of ‘first past the post’ system in city elections

Toronto city council took a significant step on Tuesday towards dramatically changing how the city elects its leaders — and who gets to cast a ballot.

By a vote of 26 to 15, the governing body asked the provincial government to allow it to use the ranked choice voting system, which demands that the winning candidate accumulate at least 50% of votes cast. It also asked, by a margin of 21 to 20, the minister of municipal affairs and housing to grant permanent residents the right to vote in municipal elections. Both initiatives require Queen’s Park to amend legislation.

Proportional representation crusaders will lament that this is more about refining first past the post than overhauling the system, but it’s for that very reason these reforms are likely to see the light of day. Like the weather, Canadians love to complain about our dysfunctional political system, but nobody ever seems to do anything about it. Over the past decade, Canadians have voted down STV, MMP, and various other acronymed voting systems in four provincial referenda. There simply doesn’t appear to be an appetite in the country for radical electoral reform.

That’s what makes the preferential ballot so appealing. It’s simple – you rank the candidates in order, something most voters do in their heads anyways. The candidate with the most votes still wins – the only difference is that sometimes the vote total will include second and third place votes. Although that sounds like a largely insignificant change, it should lead to a few tangible benefits.

First, it ensures the winner better reflects the will of the people. With first past the post, all it takes is a 3-way race for someone to get elected with under 40% of the vote – Nathan Phillips, for whom the square outside City Hall is named, won his first election as Mayor of Toronto with just 34% support. While I’m sure that election wasn’t on the minds of councillors, many were no doubt imagining a hypothetical scenario where 2 or 3 strong candidates split the “anti-crack” vote, leading to Rob Ford’s re-election. No, these changes won’t take effect next year, but having a not-so-hypothetical hypothetical staring us in the face certainly makes the benefits of this system easier to grasp.

With the dreaded “vote split” no longer an issue, candidates can step forward without being accused of siphoning votes away from the frontrunners, and voters will no longer have to choose between the candidate they like and the most “strategic” choice. I’m sure Joe Pantalone would have rather spent the last week of the 2010 Mayoral Campaign talking about the issues rather than if he was going to drop out to prevent a vote split on the left. Ditto for every single candidate who has ever run with good ideas but little chance of winning.

Finally, a ranked ballot should lead to more civility on the campaign trail. To be realistic, it won’t mean a lot more civility, but maybe a little bit. Candidates will need to be careful about alienating second and third choice voters by waging an overly negative campaign. Yes, the two frontrunners will still knock heads, but in a 3 or 4-person race the game becomes more about being everyone’s second choice than about depressing the other guy’s turnout.

The ranked ballot isn’t a radical change, and its impact will not be dramatic. But voters aren’t looking for radical change, and it will make our political system a little bit better. Given the state of municipal politics in Toronto these days, that’s very welcome.

Great Moments in Spin

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Great Moments in Spin, Toronto Municipal Politics | 4 Comments

I can’t wait to see the tourism brochures:

Toronto mayor Rob Ford is still dodging allegations that he smoked crack cocaine, but now he seems to think there’s a silver lining to the international attention brought upon his city by the scandal over his (alleged!) drug use: tourism dollars. At least that’s what Ford told Toronto radio DJ Maurie Sherman on Saturday when asked if the extra high-profile press, from morning shows like Good Morning America and Today to late-night hawks like Jimmy Fallon and Jon Stewart, was hurting the city. “No. It’s whatever people perceive it as. Any time you can get Toronto on the map,” Ford said. “I think people have to come to the city and see what we have to offer. And we have great arts and culture, great theatres, great restaurants, great sporting teams. I encourage everyone to come to Toronto.”

Cone of Silence

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Federal Politics, Scandals, Toronto Municipal Politics | 10 Comments

ford harper

Rob Ford and Stephen Harper are about as different as two politicians can be, but the one thing they have in common is an uncanny ability to brush off scandals before they stick. Harper entered the 2011 election facing a “controversy of the day” – from Bev Oda’s orange juice, to Bruce Carson’s fraud charges, to Jason Kenney’s use of government resources to target “very ethnic” voters, to “in and out”, to a historic contempt of parliament vote. What did all that get Harper? A majority government.

If I tried to list all of Rob Ford’s blowups here I’d run out of virtual ink, but despite being one of the most controversial politicians in Canadian history, his approval rating stood at 49% just last month.

However, this past week we’ve seen holes form in both Ford and Harper’s teflon and, in both cases, they have no one but themselves to blame.

It’s been nearly a week since claims surfaced of a Rob Ford crack video, yet the Mayor has refused to respond, beyond calling the allegations “ridiculous” and blaming it on a Toronto Star witch hunt. He’s cancelled his weekly radio show and has dodged reporters, to the point where even the Toronto Sun has joined the witch hunt, demanding he clear the air.

In Ottawa, Harper has been equally evasive when it comes to Nigel Wright’s $90,000 gift to Senator Mike Duffy, letting his enforcers take questions in the House before fleeing to Peru. In his lone public speech on the topic, Harper refused to admit anything wrong had happened, painted himself as the victim. More troublingly, he did not offer any sort of compelling explanation or solution.

Both Harper and Ford appear content to plug their ears and hope these latest scandals gently fade away, like so many scandals have before. However, by failing to offer any sort of consistent or coherent explanation as to what happened, the public has been left to assume the worst.

Goodbye

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Toronto Municipal Politics | 4 Comments

Rob Ford is removed as Mayor of Toronto, and Mark Carney is flying across the pond to become Governor of the Bank of England.

If any politician is looking to unload some bad news, today would be the perfect “take out the trash day“.

Fun with cluster analysis

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Fun with Numb3rs, Toronto Municipal Politics | Leave a comment

This is really a propos nothing in particular, but I stumbled across a nifty bit of analysis looking at the voting records of Toronto City Councillors. Using a cluster classification, the numerically-gifted Buzzdata user “Haz” was able to group City Council members into clusters as follows:

For those who weren’t forced to spend your early 20s labouring through fourth year statistics courses and cursing SPSS on a nightly basis, the closer two names are “linked” together, the more often they voted together. For example, the Ford brothers are linked directly to each other since they tend to vote together. Their next closest links are to Giorgio Mammoliti and Mike Del Grande.

If you keep moving down the line, council can be cleaved into two groups – the “green” and “red” lines above. Those familiar with municipal politics in Toronto will quickly recognize which side of the political spectrum each group falls.

To come up with a visual, the five largest clusters were coloured into the ward map – blue and green clusters represent councillors voting with the “lefties”, with the yellow, red, and purple clusters representing those voting with the more conservative elements of council.

As you might expect, the blue in green clusters are concentrated downtown, with the red, yellow, and purple clusters generally further out in the suburbs.

There are, of course, exceptions. York councillors Anthony Perruzza and Maria Augimeri find themselves close to the Adam Vaughans and Paula Fletchers of City Council. Meanwhile, Davenport’s Ana Bailao checks in with a more conservative voting record than you might expect given her riding went NDP this May.

A Tale of Two Cities

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in Calgary Municipal Politics, Toronto Municipal Politics | Leave a comment


I had some fun last fall comparing the elections of Naheed Nenshi in Calgary and Rob Ford in Toronto. Fairly or unfairly, it appears the two will be forever linked. We got yet another example of that this week with the news that Nenshi will become the first Mayor to lead Calgary’s pride parade, after Ford became the first Mayor in over 20 years to skip Toronto’s.

Now, I don’t think anyone should be surprised by Ford’s decision. A lot of Ford’s supporters likely feel he has his priorities straight by choosing the cottage over pride. Still, there were plenty of other Pride Week events Ford could have attended, to show his support for an event which is important to his city and many of the people who live there.

Ford missed an opportunity to expand his base – instead, all he’s done is needlessly fire up his opponents.

2010 Person of the Year

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2010 Calgary Municipal Election, 2010 Toronto Muncipal Election, Calgary Municipal Politics, Featured Posts, Person of the Year, Toronto Municipal Politics | Leave a comment

As 2010 winds down, it’s time to pick a Calgary Grit Person of the Year for the 7th consecutive year. The criteria is simple – a person who made an impact on the Canadian political scene in 2010 (ruling out obvious choices like the PM, or lame picks like “you“).

But this was a tough year, with no obvious choice once it became clear that I couldn’t contort the criteria to give the award to Sidney Crosby.

Federally, 2010 was about as dull, meaningless, and mundane as it gets. No election. No crisis. No bold policies. No leadership races. Wake me up when it’s 2011. If I had to pick a federal politician, I’d have to go with my buddy, Tony Clement. He was, after all, at the centre of the largest stories of the year – the Census, Potash, the G20 Summit. So convinced was I that Tony should be the Man of the Year that I sent him an application form – alas, he never filed it out, so I had to look elsewhere.

Now, the “political person of the year” doesn’t have to be a politician. Ivan Fellegi and Munir Sheikh could have been joint winners for turning the Census into the unlikeliest of issues. A wild card pick might have been the kids who set up the “anti-prorogation” Facebook group. But in both cases, Harper seems to have recovered and the probability of long term damage is low.

As always, interesting candidates can be found in the provincial arena. Shawn Graham signed then unsigned the NB Hydro deal and, in the process, signed away a promising career. Danny Williams called it a night. So did Gordon Campbell, though he would have been a more deserving candidate in 2008 for his carbon tax, or in 2009 for his re-election victory and subsequent HST announcement.

All good candidates, but none really define the year that was.

In my mind, 2010 was all about municipal politics. Some people think municipal politics don’t matter, but they must if people like Jim Watson, George Smitherman, Judy Wasylycia-Leis, Maurizio Bevilacqua, and Inky Mark leave provincial and federal politics for a chance to run (and in some cases, lose) municipally.

The problem is, I can’t very well pick 100 mayors as my people of the year. And selecting Rob Ford is a bit too Toronto-centric for a blog with “Calgary” in the name. So, after much thought, here are my Men of the Year:

Rob Ford and Naheed Nenshi

Of all the mayoral races in 2010, none were more fascinating, surprising, or memorable than these two. In a city overrun with “pinko cyclists”, a loud Ralph Klein clone from the suburbs drove away with it. In “redneck” Calgary, a Muslim Harvard graduate who teaches University and blogs about urban sprawl was the come from behind winner. Ford and Nenshi shattered stereotypes, prompting many to scratch their heads and wonder if we’d entered the world of bizarro politics.

Though the differences between Ford and Nenshi are obvious, their campaigns were quite similar when you get down it it. They both ran as anti-establishment outsiders. They both defined themselves early with a clear message and understandable policies. They both filled a void left open by overly cautious front runners. Yes, the kinds of people who voted for them may have been different, but a vote for Nenshi or a vote for Ford was a vote for change regardless of whether you were a commuter from Etobicoke or a student in downtown Calgary.

Beyond the immediate impact Ford and Nenshi will have on the 3.5 million Canadians they now represent is the effect their wins will have on the rest of the country. Is Ford’s win a dark omen for Dalton McGuinty or an opportunity? What does Nenshi’s victory in Calgary do to the already rocky world of Alberta provincial politics? What does this anti-establishment wave sweeping the country mean for Stephen Harper?

In addition to these questions, the lessons learned from these campaigns will last…well, at least until the next memorable election. There isn’t a politician in Canada who isn’t thinking about “the gravy train” right now. And there isn’t a campaign manager in Canada who hasn’t looked at Nenshi’s use of social media.

But above all else, in a dreary year for politics, Calgary and Toronto gave us mayoral elections worth watching and worth talking about. Which is more than can be said about just about everything else that happened politically in 2010.

2009: Jim Flaherty
2008: Stephane Dion
2007: Jean Charest
2006: Michael Ignatieff
2005: Belinda Stronach
2004: Ralph Klein

Where you live

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2010 Toronto Muncipal Election | Leave a comment

The City of Toronto has released the poll-by-poll election night numbers and the result is no surprise – if you live in pre-amalgamation Toronto or on a subway line, you likely voted for Smitherman. If you’re a surburban type who drives a Ford, you likely voted Ford.

The Torontoist has the map:

And BlogTO looks back at previous elections:


UPDATE: And Ottawa!

The Rob Ford Phenomenon

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2010 Toronto Muncipal Election | Leave a comment


I’m not sure a thorough post-mortem is required for yesterday’s election in Toronto. Much has been written about Rob Ford in recent weeks and it’s fairly easy to understand what happened. It was simply a case of Ford being the right person with the right message at the right time. Politics is usually as simple as that.

But since people usually try to make it a lot more complicated, let’s take a quick look at what this wasn’t a case of.

1. It wasn’t a case of Toronto suddenly becoming more conservative. Calgary has had Liberal mayors for 20 years without electing a single Liberal MP. So I wouldn’t take this as a sign that Stephen Harper or Tim Hudak are about to march to the CN Tower anytime soon. This theory becomes ever shakier when you consider the number of conservative incumbents who were tossed out in favour of Liberals in other Ontario cities.

2. It wasn’t a case of Ford winning by default or because other campaigns messed up. This election was all about Ford from start to finish. If voters truly didn’t want Ford, they had plenty of time to switch their vote to Smitherman. If they didn’t like Smitherman, there was plenty of time for a third candidate to emerge, the way a third candidate emerged (and won) in Calgary when voters were underwhelmed by the two front runners.

3. It wasn’t Joey Pants’ fault. If you look at the numbers, Pantalone wasn’t the difference in this one. Even if he drops out, Ford still wins. And it wasn’t like Ford came out of nowhere – everyone knew that voting for Pantalone meant they were tacitly endorsing Ford for mayor, and they were cool with it.

So what was last night all about? Part of it was the anti-incumbency craze which is sweeping the nation. Toronto voters, especially those in the suburbs, were fed up with waste at City Hall and felt the suburban car crowd was being ignored. Ford played on that sentiment beautifully.

He got his message out early and just kept blabbing about the “gravy train” over and over again like a broken Teddy Ruxpin doll. Most debates I watched went something like this:

What’s your plan for snow removal Mr. Ford?
Stop the gravy train!

In politics, if you get a powerful message, you stick to it. And Ford did just that.

So that’s the “right message, right time” part of the equation. The real question is how on earth an inarticulate hot head who opposes immigration to Toronto and has been charged with everything from drunk driving to spousal abuse could be the “right person”?

Well, for starters, he had credibility on the waste issue due to his track record of not spending from his council expense account. Having the right message isn’t enough if you don’t have credibility on it. Given Smitherman’s track record at E-Health, he wasn’t perceived to have the same level of credibility on this issue as Ford.

Ford also has the rarest of qualities in a politician – he comes across as genuine. Because they saw him as a real person, voters looked past the shaky math and were willing to forgive his many, many, many shortcomings. Ford reminds me more and more of Ralph Klein with each passing day (right down to the incoherent red faced victory speeches), which is why he cannot be underestimated.

I know the common sense is that he’ll be a disaster and will be O’Brien’d in 2014.

Perhaps.

But so long as Ford stays true to what got him this far, voters may very well continue to forgive. Ralph Klein had a good run and it’s incredibly presumptuous to assume Ford won’t be around to exasperate us downtown Toronto Liberals for many years to come.

Ontario Votes Live Blog

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2010 Toronto Muncipal Election | Leave a comment

11:15 pm: Sorry for the delay in status updates. Us elitists can get sidetracked from important tasks like blogging, when filled with rage (and fine wine).

As for the results…well, Ford ran a good campaign. I’ll have more on that tomorrow. For now, I think it’s important for progressive Torontonians to keep things in perspective. There’s only so much the mayor can do – he won’t be ripping up the streetcar tracks any time soon, or cancelling the Toronto marathon.

Plus, this is good news for McGuinty – it gets the “angry protest vote” out of everyone’s system and gives McGuinty a possible stalking horse to run against in a year’s time. This wasn’t a conservative wave sweeping across Ontario – many progressive candidates, including Maurizio Bevilacqua and Jim Watson, won tonight.

While the results aren’t shocking – I’d predicted a Ford win – it does leave me a big bafflegabed. I mean, I leave Calgary and now they’ve got Naheed Nenshi and I’m stuck with Rob Ford. I feel a bit like Eeyore with the conservative rain cloud following me around.

8:10 pm: Ford wins. Well, that was anticlimatic.

8:06 pm: The downside of the scan-trons is that you get results right away. With a third of the polls in, Ford has built up a massive 51% to 31% lead.

7:30 pm: My fellow Toronto elitists have begun arriving…we’ve already had to open up a second bike rack for overflow parking. The wine is chilling, the hors d’oeuvres are cooking, and the recycling boxes have been placed out for everyone. The fun is about to begin!

7:08 pm: Fun drinking game for tonight. Drink a shot of gravy every time someone talks about “the gravy train”. See if you can avoid passing out before they declare a winner.

6:35 pm: My prediction for tonight – Ford 45%, Smitherman 41%, Pantalone 12%. But I’m hoping to be proven wrong.

6:25 pm: Just got back from voting for George Smitherman.

The exciting revelation of the day is that Toronto will be using scan-trons for this election – which means Canadian democracy has finally caught up technologically with most 1994 Grade 6 classrooms. Presumably, this should make for a quick reading of the ballots tonight.

Given how close the polls are, this election is going to be all about turnout. So your litmus test tonight is really this – are the lines longer in Etobicoke or in downtown Toronto? The answer to that question will decide the election. For what it’s worth, the lineup at my polling station (downtown) seemed about as long as for the federal election.

I’ll be hosting a “Toronto elitists” election night party tonight and will be live blogging all the festivities and snark, so be sure to tune back in here later.