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April Poll Soup – Guergis Fallout?
According to Frank Graves, the Jaffergis Imbruglio has caused Stephen Harper to “have cold beads of sweat popping out of his brow“. Well, the April poll numbers are in and, despite a slight dip Tory support, Harper’s lead over the Liberals actually went up. If the guy’s breaking into a cold sweat over that, he […]
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Post-Budget Poll Soup
With the Tories widening their polling lead over the Liberals in March, it’s easy to attribute this to a post-Olympic bounce, or reaction to the federal budget. But the Olympic bounce logic never made much sense to me, and given I can’t even remember three details about the budget, I’d imagine it hasn’t had a […]
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February Poll Soup: The New Normal
We’ve had a fair chunk of polling out this month and the results are fairly consistent – a slim Tory lead, similar to what we saw in January, at the height of the prorogation backlash. The notable exception would be Environics, which had the Grits in front earlier this month. Of course, every pundit has […]
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January Poll Soup
I neglected my monthly polling updates a bit during the end of 2009 – and can you blame me, given how bleak they looked? But, poll soup has returned, with the January 2010 numbers. I could offer up some analysis but these numbers speak for themselves – it’s fairly evident what effect prorogation has had […]
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Harper Quickly Losing The Elitist Vote
Three polls out yesterday and today, all showing some erosion in Conservative support: Angus Reid (Jan 12-13, n = 1077 online) CPC 34%Lib 28%NDP 19%BQ 9%Green 8% Strategic Counsel (Jan 5-8, n = 2168 online & phone) CPC 31%Lib 30%NDP 18%BQ 9%Green 10% Ekos (Jan 6-12, n = 3730 demon dialed) CPC 30.9%Lib 29.3%NDP 15.3%BQ […]
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On the bright side, Ignatieff was picked as "the leader you’d most like to attend an Isaiah Berlin leture with"
Angus Reid has a fun poll out, where they ask “the beer question”, amongst others. In it, we learn that the mustached socialist is the “jock” of Canadian politics – he’s the one voters would like to have a beer with, or have on their sports team. Harper wins most of the “prime ministerial” questions […]
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Today in Prorogation
1. From Tory MP MP Brent Rathgeber, comes this darling quote: “Democracy and Parliament are not being sidestepped — they are only being suspended.” I look forward to the campaign signs around St. Albert next election: “Suspend Democracy – Elect Rathgeber!” 2. The Economist weighs in, with a critical editorial on Harper’s decision to go […]
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October Poll Soup: Turning 40
The common opinion when looking at opinion polls seems to be that 40 is a magical number where majorities become possible and leads become “commanding”. Is this true? Well, it depends on the map, but it certainly does leave a psychological impact. And the Tories are basically there, which means they’re polling higher now than […]
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Poll Soup Update
There are four new polls out this week, showing a surprising amount of consistency between them – so it’s probably worth updating the rolling average: Angus Reid (September 29-30, n = 1000 online)CPC 37%Lib 27%NDP 17%BQ 11%Green 6% Ekos (September 23-29, n = 3216 auto dialed) CPC 36.0%Lib 29.7%NDP 13.9%BQ 9.8%Green 10.5% Ipsos Reid (September […]
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Poll Soup Returns
Let’s face it – no one’s paying attention to politics over the summer, save perhaps political blog geeks like myself. So I took a break from the monthly poll soup updates. However, things are heating up again, and we were treated to a barrage of polls this week, making this a good time to survey […]