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A moment of silence for our fallen comrades
The hardest part of last night for me was watching so many quality MPs go down in defeat. All too often, the individual casualties of a blood bath like this are overlooked, and aren’t given a proper farewell. So let me take a minute to thank a few of my favourites for making a difference. […]
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Predicting the Unexpected
I’ll announce the winners from my election pool later this week. One of the questions there asked which polling company’s final poll numbers would hit closest to the mark. You can browse the numbers here. To pick a winner, I simply added up the difference between their numbers and the results, producing the following: Angus […]
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About that unnecessary election…
A $300M Canadian election would change little: Pollster Canada is on the verge of being plunged into a $300-million federal election and after it’s all over Parliament could well look the same, an EKOS seat projection concludes. “No party would shift by more than a handful of seats and qualitatively this would be a virtually […]
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"With all of its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it’s still a beautiful world. Strive to be happy."
I don’t think I’m in a position to offer much insight right now. It’s hard to give a speech when you’ve been punched in the gut repeatedly. I’d accepted it would be bad but…wow. I’m not sure I’ve ever been quite this devastated by an election result. Like…wow… There will be lots of time in […]
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Election Night
I’m volunteering for my local Liberal candidate for most of the day and will be at the campaign party tonight, so updates might be a bit sporadic – especially since I plan to spend an hour or two at some point curled up in the fetal position in tears. But rest assured, I will log […]
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A look back
If you’re looking to kill time until the polls close, here’s a look back at some of the posts here from the past 36 days. Thanks to the usual suspects for commenting, and thanks to all for reading. Election blogging is always a lot of fun. Let’s do it all again next year! PREDICTIONS AND […]
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Polls, Projections, Predictions
A round-up of what might, but probably won’t, happen tonight: POLLS Leger: CPC 36%, NDP 31%, Lib 21%, BQ 7%, Green 4% Angus Reid: CPC 37%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 4% Ipsos: CPC 38%, NDP 33%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 4% Nanos: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 21%, BQ 6%, Green […]
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Endorsements
The Globe half heartedly endorses Harper, Coyne half heartedly endorses the Liberals, and the Economist calls Harper “the least bad option”. Even the Sun throws a dozen caveats at their endorsement of Harper. The National Post is a bit more upbeat in their endorsement of Harper, as is the Star in their endorsement of Layton. […]
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Final Seat Projections
I’ll follow up tomorrow with a round-up of all the final polls and projections but for now, here’s the running average. For those just tuning in, I assign weights to all polls based on sample size, the polling company’s track record on Canadian elections over the past 6 years, and the recency of the data: […]
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Ridings to Watch – Ontario
I’ve already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec. I finish off tonight in Ontario. While Quebec will decide who moves into Stornoway, Ontario will decide whether or not Harper gets his majority (or if Layton pulls off the shocker): It’s a good night for the Liberals if… At this […]