2011 Federal Election

A moment of silence for our fallen comrades

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics | Leave a comment

The hardest part of last night for me was watching so many quality MPs go down in defeat. All too often, the individual casualties of a blood bath like this are overlooked, and aren’t given a proper farewell. So let me take a minute to thank a few of my favourites for making a difference.

Gone is Gerard Kennedy, who I had the honour of supporting for leader five years ago. One of the reasons I backed Gerard was because he was one of the few people back then who recognized the need to renew and rebuild the Liberal Party. We all recognize that now, and I can only hope Gerard will be a part of that rebuilding, even if it’s not as an MP.

Gone is Ken Dryden, arguably the heart of the Liberal Party. Dryden is one of the most thoughtful politicians you’ll ever meet and he believed in politics for a purpose, not just politics for the sake of politics. Dryden’s vision of Canada will be missed at a time when the Liberal Party tries to come to grips with what it truly believes in.

Gone is Siobhan Coady, a rookie MP who appeared to have a bright future ahead of her. She is exactly the kind of accomplished woman we need more of in politics, and she was one of the few MPs who could ask a tough question with emotion, while still avoiding hyperbole.

Gone is Glen Pearson, one of the few MPs able to rise above the hyper partisanship that infects most who go to Ottawa. Pearson talks in sentences, not sound bytes. He was one of the few who genuinely wanted to make Parliament work, unlike the many who only talk about making Parliament work.

Gone is Ujjal Dosanjh, a quality MP. Gone is Mark Holland, a fierce fighter. Gone is Navdeep Bains, a great MP and a great person. Gone is Martha Hall Findlay, the spunky underdog of the 2006 leadership race.

There are others who I’ve forgotten or just didn’t know as well, but who are equally deserving of praise. I thank them all for their service to the Liberal Party and to their country.

Then there are those who never got a chance to go to Ottawa. Strong candidates, like Christine Innes, who I spent much of this election trying to keep up with as she sprinted door to door to meet voters. And let’s not forget all those who put their names forward to run, knowing it would take a miracle for them to win. Having volunteered on a lot of campaigns like that over the years, I fully appreciate the kind of commitment and idealism that takes.

Finally, there is the one MP who lost a lot more than his seat last night. Long time readers will know I’ve always had doubts about Michael Ignatieff’s ability to lead the Liberal Party, and I took issue with the way he commandeered the leadership of the party.

Still, I’ve warmed to the man greatly over the past year, and I always did like the concept of Michael Ignatieff. If I was writing a Canadian political drama a la West Wing, I’d probably create a protagonist a lot like Michael. He is, after all, exactly what voters say they’re looking for in a leader. He’s intelligent. He has seen the world. He’s not a career politician. It’s hard not to fall in love with the concept of Michael Ignatieff.

Yesterday, we found out just how easy it is to not fall in love with the reality of Michael Ignatieff. In the real world, politics is a job like any other, and we shouldn’t be surprised when the guys who have been doing it their whole lives prove to be better at it than the guy who picked it up in his late 50s. Michael Ignatieff simply was not able to connect with voters the same way Jack Layton could connect with voters.

I’ll write up a proper post-mortem on what went wrong for Michael Ignatieff the party leader in the coming days but for now, a moment of silence for Michael Ignatieff the MP, who didn’t deserve to lose his seat. We need accomplished individuals like him in politics, regardless of the party they run for.

A lot of good people lost their jobs last night, Michael Ignatieff among them.

Predicting the Unexpected

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Polls, Seat Projections | Leave a comment

I’ll announce the winners from my election pool later this week. One of the questions there asked which polling company’s final poll numbers would hit closest to the mark.

You can browse the numbers here. To pick a winner, I simply added up the difference between their numbers and the results, producing the following:

Angus Reid: 5.2%
Nanos: 5.5%
Ipsos: 6.0%
Decima: 6.4%
Leger: 7.2%
Abacus: 9.0%
Forum: approx 9% (BQ and Green numbers extrapolated)
Ekos: 10.3%
Compass: 14.0%

So congrats to those of you who picked Angus. The top 6 companies on that list were within the margin of error on their numbers, so they too deserve a round of applause.

As for the seat projections, here’s the total seat miss:

Riding by Riding: 52
LISPOP: 56
Calgary Grit: 56
Ekos: 58
Democratic Space: 58
Trendlines: 59
308.com: 98
Election Prediction Project: 118

So a similar performance by all the mathematical models, except for 308 who has already offered a brief post mortem. I will add that my prediction was further off the mark from my projection – I made the same faulty assumptions as the EPP did, assuming strong incumbents could hold their seats.

The largest problem with my projection was the polls it fed off – specifically the low Conservative numbers (which I did foresee as a potential problem). If I plug the actual numbers in, my model projects: CPC 168.8, NDP 94.6, Lib 34.0, Bloc 10.1. The regional splits break down nicely too, except for Quebec where I’m a bit high on the Bloc and low on the NDP.

But this model was supposed to handle pollsters missing the mark. A few of the results fell outside the 95% confidence interval so this is, as Jack Layton would say, a hash tag fail.

I’ll put this one to bed for a bit and start tinkering again over the summer, but I think this speaks to the limitations of any seat projection model. They’re useful tools, but it’s incredibly naive to assume they can predict the total seat count, much less individual riding results.

But that’s ok. If they worked, it would make election nights a bore.

About that unnecessary election…

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

A $300M Canadian election would change little: Pollster

Canada is on the verge of being plunged into a $300-million federal election and after it’s all over Parliament could well look the same, an EKOS seat projection concludes.

“No party would shift by more than a handful of seats and qualitatively this would be a virtually identical balance of power to what we have now,” the polling firm says on its website. The report is based on data collected Feb. 24 to March 8.

I re-post this only as one final reminder that campaigns matter.

"With all of its shams, drudgery, and broken dreams, it’s still a beautiful world. Strive to be happy."

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

I don’t think I’m in a position to offer much insight right now. It’s hard to give a speech when you’ve been punched in the gut repeatedly.

I’d accepted it would be bad but…wow. I’m not sure I’ve ever been quite this devastated by an election result. Like…wow

There will be lots of time in the weeks ahead for a thorough post-mortem, so let’s stick to the obvious for now. This is a total victory for the Conservatives and the NDP, and a total defeat for the Liberals and Bloc. There’s no other way to spin it. In one fell swoop, Harper has his majority and will go down as the most successful Conservative leader since John A. MacDonald. Not just that, the Liberal Party has been marginalized, opening the door for a Conservative dynasty. Could Stephen Harper be Prime Minister for 20 years when all is said and done? It’s not impossible under the new electoral dynamics we now find ourselves in.

For the NDP, Jack Layton has accomplished what Ed Broadbent and Tommy Douglas could not. He’s the leader of the official opposition, winning three times as many seats as the Liberals. Quite simply, Jack is a now an NDP god. Twenty years from now, every debate drinking game out there is going to have Jack Layton’s name under the NDP leader’s column.

For the Bloc, this is an ignominious end to Gilles Duceppe’s political career. They have lost official party status and could now fade into irrelevancy. As Andrew Coyne said on the National, “Good Ridance“. I do think the NDP sweep of Quebec may come back to haunt them down the road, but for now, Canada wins big by the complete destruction of the Bloc.

And that brings us to the Liberals. I’ll have much to write about the Liberal Party is the weeks ahead, so all I’ll say tonight is this: There’s a lot of work to do over the next four years, and every Liberal I talked to tonight recognizes there are no quick fixes. People get that the future of the party is a jeopardy and that it’s a long road back. A lot of work is needed and I know I’m willing to do what it takes. I hope others are too.

Election Night

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics | Leave a comment

I’m volunteering for my local Liberal candidate for most of the day and will be at the campaign party tonight, so updates might be a bit sporadic – especially since I plan to spend an hour or two at some point curled up in the fetal position in tears.

But rest assured, I will log on here a few times tonight to share my thoughts on the results. So consider this an open thread to post your thoughts on what could be a historic election.

Some things I’ll be paying attention to tonight:

1. Harper’s majority: People often dwell on the “155″ number, but when you consider resignations, floor crossings, and by elections, every extra MP in that 150-160 range is a big deal. I’ve got Harper projected at 151 seats and a 28% chance at the majority, so it might be late into the night before we see how the dust settles.

2. The independents: Arthur, Ford, and Guergis all stand a chance of winning tonight. Can you imagine how delicious it would be if Harper needed Helena’s vote to get his majority?

3. Liberal incumbents: A lot of Liberal MPs I like and respect could be in tough tonight – Kennedy, Trudeau, and Dryden to name a few.

4. Harper’s Cabinet: Lawrence Cannon seems likely to be going down, but he’s not the only Quebec Cabinet Minister in jeopardy. 308 is also predicting Peter MacKay will lose – I have a hard time believing that, but it would be the stunner of the night.

5. The NDP in Quebec: The NDP could win 20 seats in Quebec…or they could win 50. I can’t remember the last time a province was this unpredictable heading into election night. Their performance in Quebec will be an excellent case study in just how important the ground game really is.

6. May: It’s going to be a close one. What happens in Saanich tonight could very well decide how relevant the Green Party is in Canada over the next decade.

7. Gilles Duceppe: This will almost certainly be his final campaign. The only question left is whether or not he holds his own seat, and just how bad it gets for the Bloc.

Those are just some of the things I’ll be watching for tonight. I’m sure we’ll be treated to a few surprises along the way too.

A look back

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

If you’re looking to kill time until the polls close, here’s a look back at some of the posts here from the past 36 days.

Thanks to the usual suspects for commenting, and thanks to all for reading. Election blogging is always a lot of fun. Let’s do it all again next year!

PREDICTIONS AND PROJECTIONS

A round up of the final polls and projections

Final Calgary Grit seat projections

Ridings to watch: Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, Alberta, BC

AD WATCH

Final Liberal Ads
Attacking Jack
Let’s celebrate the GST cut
Just Jack
Mmm…pancakes
Not so subtle attacks
Stephen Harper: The Movie
Ignatieff gets personal
Going after the Tim Hortons crowd
First Liberal ads
Pre-writ ads

RANDOM POSTS

We urge you to vote for these losers

Seeing the world through orange coloured glasses

Pictures from the campaign trail

Michael Ignatieff eats a hot dog

Tory troll application

Election Preview

Party Primers

WEEK IN REVIEW

Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

DEBATES

French debate post-game thoughts
English debate BINGO card, pre-game analysis, live blog, and post-game thoughts

CANDIDATE INTERVIEWS

Josipa Petrunic
Stephen Randall

Polls, Projections, Predictions

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Polls, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

A round-up of what might, but probably won’t, happen tonight:

POLLS

Leger: CPC 36%, NDP 31%, Lib 21%, BQ 7%, Green 4%

Angus Reid: CPC 37%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 4%

Ipsos: CPC 38%, NDP 33%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 4%

Nanos: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 21%, BQ 6%, Green 4%

Ekos: CPC 35%, NDP 31%, Lib 20%, BQ 5%, Green 6%

Decima: CPC 36%, NDP 30%, Lib 19%, BQ 6%, Green 6%

Forum: CPC 35%, NDP 33%, Lib 19%

Abacus: CPC 37%, NDP 32%, Lib 18%, BQ 7%, Green 7%

Compass: CPC 46%, NDP 26%, Lib 17%, BQ 7%, Green 4%

PREDICTIONS & PROJECTIONS

308.com: CPC 143, NDP 78, Lib 60, BQ 27

Riding-by-Riding: CPC 142, NDP 114, Lib 39, BQ 12, Ind 1

Trendlines: CPC 148, NDP 92, Lib 50, BQ 17

Ekos: CPC 138, NDP 113, Lib 41, BQ 15, Green 1

LISPOP: CPC 144, NDP 98, Lib 51, BQ 15

Democratic Space: CPC 155, NDP 86, Lib 47, BQ 20

Calgary Grit (projection): CPC 151.0, NDP 90.9, Lib 46.9, BQ 18.5, Ind 0.6

Calgary Grit (prediction): CPC 146, NDP 83, Lib 55, BQ 22, Green 1, Ind 1

Election Prediction Project: CPC 146, Lib 63, NDP 65, BQ 33, Ind 1

A few of the readers from this blog have made their predictions in this thread – feel free to join them there, or post yours below. The average prediction from ya’ll so far is: CPC 143, NDP 88, Lib 54, BQ 22, Ind 1, Green 0

Endorsements

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Globe half heartedly endorses Harper, Coyne half heartedly endorses the Liberals, and the Economist calls Harper “the least bad option”.

Even the Sun throws a dozen caveats at their endorsement of Harper.

The National Post is a bit more upbeat in their endorsement of Harper, as is the Star in their endorsement of Layton.

However, the Gazette makes it perfectly clear they have not come down with a case of Layton-mania.

A lot of these endorsements dwell on the negative, so let’s take a moment to appreciate the positive for a minute.

In one corner, you have the incumbent. I certainly haven’t hesitated to point out his shortcomings, but the man is poised to win a third straight election, so obviously Canadians think he’s done a pretty good job at the helm. Harper has led a moderate government, and has made decisions that fall in line with the wishes of most Canadians. The economy is strong, the country is in fine shape, and Harper has shown the kind of focus, decisiveness, and determination most people look for in a Prime Minister.

The surprise challenger is Jack Layton. As I’ve said before, it’s hard not to tip your hat to Jack and admire what he has accomplished after all he’s been through over the past year. He’s playing playoff hockey on one leg, and still scoring goals every night. He’s certainly the best politician we’ve seen on the national stage since Jean Chretien, and that should count for something. Even though most of what he’s saying doesn’t add up, he sounds so gosh darn cheerful and confident saying it, it’s hard not to be swept in.

Then there’s Michael Ignatieff. Clearly, the campaign has not gone how he would have liked it to. But despite being the focus of a multi-million dollar smear campaign which has questioned his loyalty to Canada, he has shown passion at every stop on the campaign trail. The man genuinely wants to fix democracy in Canada, and has outlined a realistic platform to make the lives of Canadians better. If we truly want to be led by the best and the brightest, it’s hard to find anyone who has accomplished more or experienced more in his life than Michael Ignatieff.

Rest assured that we have three competent leaders who love their country and want to make it a better place. We have over 1,000 local candidates who love their country and want to make it a better place. All of them have poured their soul into this campaign, put their lives on hold, and devoted hundreds of hours to meeting voters because they believe in what they’re fighting for.

Despite what the ads might have you believe, nothing that happens tonight will destroy Canada.

You already know how I’ve voted, so I won’t try to sway anyone any further. For the few out there who are truly undecided, read the party platforms, research your local candidates, and think about who you want leading the country.

Then vote.

Final Seat Projections

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics, Seat Projections | Leave a comment


I’ll follow up tomorrow with a round-up of all the final polls and projections but for now, here’s the running average. For those just tuning in, I assign weights to all polls based on sample size, the polling company’s track record on Canadian elections over the past 6 years, and the recency of the data:

CPC 36.5%
NDP 29.9%
Lib 21.3%
BQ 6.6%
Green 4.9%

Keep in mind, the Conservatives exceeded their final poll numbers by 2-3 percentage points in 2008. Whether or not that happens again remains to be seen, but they do have the best ground game and the most incumbent candidates. Their vote also tends to be older and, I suspect, is more likely to turn out at the polls. But that’s all conjecture on my part – the exercise here is to make projections using the data on hand.

Using the vote numbers above, I’ve simulated the election 10,000 times. These simulations factor in results from the past 3 elections, the demographics of each riding, by election results, and incumbency advantages. Each simulation looks at how regional shifts traditionally transfer to the riding level – after all, if the NDP vote jumps from 12% to 36% in Quebec, it doesn’t mean their vote will increase by 24 points in every riding…and it doesn’t mean their vote will triple in every riding. This is why the simulation model is, in my humble opinion, superior to all other models out there. It doesn’t say the Tories will win a given seat – it only says they have a 70% chance of winning a given seat.

Finally, when running the simulations, I also consider the fact that the polls could simply be off the mark, as they have been in some recent elections.

For the long and boring explanation of this methodology, click here.

So, with that said…drumroll please…

CPC: 139 to 163 seats (mean: 151.0)
NDP: 76 to 106 seats (mean: 90.9)
Lib: 35 to 58 seats (mean: 46.9)
BQ: 9 to 30 seats (mean: 18.5)
Ind: 0.6

I would love to tighten some of those confidence intervals up, but the reality is this is as close to certain as we can be given the public polling data on hand. Quebec is a complete wild card this election, since there isn’t a projection model out there capable of saying what a 30-point jump in NDP support actually means in terms of seats.

All 10,000 simulations had the same order of the parties, with the Conservatives winning a majority 28% of the time. So we may have to stay up late to see whether or not Harper gets that long sought after majority…or at least is close enough to “top it up” with a few floor crossers.

Now, what I like about this simulation model is that it’s 100% data driven. I haven’t arbitrarily decided who is or isn’t a star candidate, or tweaked the model to get the results I want. So like all seat projection systems, it should be used as a tool to make predictions, not as a prediction in and of itself.

This is why I’ve spent the weekend going riding by riding (Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies, Alberta, BC). Based on what the model is projecting and what the individual ridings look like, I’m going to stand by the prediction I made on James Bow’s blog yesterday:

CPC 146
NDP 83
Lib 55
BQ 22
Green 1
Ind 1

I may be wrong, and that’s cool if I am. It wouldn’t be the first time. By all means, make your own predictions below, and I’ll be sure to give a special shout out to whoever is closest to the mark.

Ridings to Watch – Ontario

Posted on by CalgaryGrit in 2011 Federal Election, Federal Politics | Leave a comment

I’ve already profiled close races in BC, Alberta, the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec. I finish off tonight in Ontario.

While Quebec will decide who moves into Stornoway, Ontario will decide whether or not Harper gets his majority (or if Layton pulls off the shocker):

It’s a good night for the Liberals if…

At this point, every hold for the grits is good news. If things really broke their way, Omar Alghabra’s strong campaign in Mississauga-Erindale would end with him back in Ottawa. Oak Ridges Markham and the two Kitchener seats could also tip Liberal under the right circumstances.

And although my projection model is not overly optimistic, I’ve heard good things about David Bertshi’s campaign in Ottawa-Orleans, so that could be a surprise.

It’s a bad night for the Liberals if…

The projection model (to be updated later tonight) gives the Liberals less than even odds in 10 of their current seats, with Kingston and the Islands the most vulnerable. Parkdale High Park, the Beaches, and Davenport are all under fire from the NDP, with the Tories after a handful of 905 ridings and Nipissing-Timiskaming. Guelph and London North Centre are wild cards at this point, with all three parties in the game there.

If long-time incumbents like Ken Dryden and Joe Volpe start falling, the Liberals will very likely finish the night around Turner’s 44 seat total of 1984.

It’s a good night for the Conservatives if…

To win his majority, Harper will need to pick up ridings like Ajax-Pickering, Don Valley West, and, yes, even Etobicoke Lakeshore.

It’s a bad night for the Conservatives if…

While the orange wave likely helps Harper in most GTA ridings, it could cost him Oshawa, a seat my model gives the NDP a 40% chance of taking.

And if ridings like Kenora or the Kitcheners fall, we could very well wind up in a situation where the national Liberal + NDP seat total pushes itself over 154.

It’s a good night for the NDP if…

My model gives the NDP a “best case” scenario of 26 seats in Ontario. To do that, they’d need to come from third to win London North Centre and come from fourth to take Guelph. Even long-shots like York South Weston or Scarborough Southwest would have to fall, and I just don’t see that happening.

Realistically, 20 seats in Ontario would be a good haul for the NDP.

It’s a bad night for the NDP if…

Welland is the only NDP seat my model gives them under a 90% chance of holding and, even then, it pegs Malcolm Allen’s re-election odds at 80%. However, at this point, NDP supporters would likely be disappointed if they can’t pick off at least one or two Liberal MPs.